Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
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Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

<ul>
<li>Shigenobu Nagamori resigned as director but remains honorary chairman, a move we see as insufficient to address Nidec's recent accounting controversy.</li>
<li>Meaningful recovery requires both founders’ full retirement, a restructured, more independent board, and a chief risk officer to oversee professional auditing and reforms.</li>
<li>The company also needs to improve transparency on assets, overhaul incentives toward return on investment, and develop a realistic mid-term plan to improve return on capital.</li>
</ul>


Shigenobu Nagamori resigned as director but remains honorary chairman, a move we see as insufficient to address Nidec's recent accounting controversy.
Meaningful recovery requires both founders’ full retirement, a restructured, more independent board, and a chief risk officer to oversee professional auditing and reforms.
The company also needs to improve transparency on assets, overhaul incentives toward return on investment, and develop a realistic mid-term plan to improve return on capital.


Nidec (6594): Fake Resignations Don't Count

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

ThyssenKrupp AG manufactures industrial components.  The Company produces flat rolled and cast steel, automobile parts, elevators and escalators, machine tools, bearings, nonferrous metals and plastics, develops and manages real estate, and designs and constructs factories.

<ul><li>On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG &amp; Co. (TKMS).</li><li>TKMS stands out as Germany’s only full-systems provider for non-nuclear submarines, surface vessels and maritime electronics.</li><li>The spin-off is part of a broader move by Thyssenkrupp to unlock shareholder value by simplifying its conglomerate structure.</li></ul>

On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG &amp; Co. (TKMS).TKMS stands out as Germany’s only full-systems provider for non-nuclear submarines, surface vessels and maritime electronics.The spin-off is part of a broader move by Thyssenkrupp to unlock shareholder value by simplifying its conglomerate structure.

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>BHP has abandoned a last minute bid for Anglo American, which will likely see the latter's planned merger with Teck with proceed </li>
<li>We consider other potential targets for BHP, all copper, concluding that most seem unlikely for now, especially with the company stating a focus on organic growth</li>
<li>BHP faces the risks of a decline in iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus) prices in our view, while it trades at premium to the sector and above our DCF </li>
</ul>


BHP has abandoned a last minute bid for Anglo American, which will likely see the latter's planned merger with Teck with proceed 
We consider other potential targets for BHP, all copper, concluding that most seem unlikely for now, especially with the company stating a focus on organic growth
BHP faces the risks of a decline in iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus) prices in our view, while it trades at premium to the sector and above our DCF 


BHP: Few Viable Targets After Anglo Bid Abandoned

<ul>
<li>Until the latest accounting scandal, Nidec was just another stupidly over-valued company that chased too many rainbows and missed too many targets.</li>
<li>Now, finally, it has fallen to interesting valuations and there is a real incentive to fix the things that need fixing. </li>
<li>Nidec is a governance nightmare with poor oversight, a history of bad strategic decisions, and shoddy execution. If these are fixed, though, the upside is enormous.</li>
</ul>


Until the latest accounting scandal, Nidec was just another stupidly over-valued company that chased too many rainbows and missed too many targets.
Now, finally, it has fallen to interesting valuations and there is a real incentive to fix the things that need fixing. 
Nidec is a governance nightmare with poor oversight, a history of bad strategic decisions, and shoddy execution. If these are fixed, though, the upside is enormous.


Can Nidec (6594) Ever Wake Up from Its Compliance Nightmare?

Insights on Companies in the Tesla Supply Chain

Tesla Supply Chain
Insights on Companies in the Tesla Supply Chain

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nidec (6594): Fake Resignations Don't Count

Shigenobu Nagamori's resignation as director of Nidec resolves nothing. Both founders should retire, and a complete board restructuring is needed...

Michael Allen

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG & Co. (TKMS).

Richard Howe

BHP: Few Viable Targets After Anglo Bid Abandoned

With the Anglo American bid abandoned, we find few other viable targets for BHP, while risks to iron ore and copper prices remain and the valuation...

Graeme Cunningham

Can Nidec (6594) Ever Wake Up from Its Compliance Nightmare?

Nidec, once over-valued and plagued by governance issues, now presents a potential opportunity for improvement and potential upside.

Michael Allen

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nidec (6594): Fake Resignations Don't Count

​Shigenobu Nagamori's resignation as director of Nidec resolves nothing. Both founders should retire, and a complete board restructuring is needed...

Michael Allen

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG & Co. (TKMS).

Richard Howe

BHP: Few Viable Targets After Anglo Bid Abandoned

With the Anglo American bid abandoned, we find few other viable targets for BHP, while risks to iron ore and copper prices remain and the valuation...

Graeme Cunningham

Can Nidec (6594) Ever Wake Up from Its Compliance Nightmare?

​Nidec, once over-valued and plagued by governance issues, now presents a potential opportunity for improvement and potential upside.

Michael Allen

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Shigenobu Nagamori's resignation as director of Nidec resolves nothing. Both founders should retire, and a complete board restructuring is needed...

Nidec, once over-valued and plagued by governance issues, now presents a potential opportunity for improvement and potential upside.