Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, car navigation systems, digital devices, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associated companies around the world.

<ul>
<li>Panasonic blew out consensus forecasts in Q2 and trades at 60% of book value. </li>
<li>Jtekt missed but raised its dividend, which was already very high. </li>
<li>Aisin missed, but by a trivial amount, and the price/book value fell back to a level that marked support on multiple occasions since the Pandemic started.</li>
</ul>


Panasonic blew out consensus forecasts in Q2 and trades at 60% of book value. 
Jtekt missed but raised its dividend, which was already very high. 
Aisin missed, but by a trivial amount, and the price/book value fell back to a level that marked support on multiple occasions since the Pandemic started.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

<ul><li>Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings presented positive results making their stock catapult.</li><li>The company delivered a decent performance amid a challenging automotive industry environment.</li><li>The company, known for its electric vehicles (EV) and energy solutions, achieved record deliveries despite the overall industry seeing a decline in order volume.</li></ul>

Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings presented positive results making their stock catapult.The company delivered a decent performance amid a challenging automotive industry environment.The company, known for its electric vehicles (EV) and energy solutions, achieved record deliveries despite the overall industry seeing a decline in order volume.

Tesla's Quarterly Profit Outperformance And The 6 Major Factors Taking It Forward! - Financial Forecasts

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

<ul><li>For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing.</li><li>The staler the product line-up got, the more margins got squeezed and growth expectations faltered.</li><li>This has put the FSD optionality front and center in the Tesla bull case. So much, that I had previously estimated that it commands north of 70% of the market capitalization.</li></ul>

For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing.The staler the product line-up got, the more margins got squeezed and growth expectations faltered.This has put the FSD optionality front and center in the Tesla bull case. So much, that I had previously estimated that it commands north of 70% of the market capitalization.

The Most Surprising Thing About Tesla's 3Q24

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

<ul><li>Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges.</li><li>The company reported earnings of $2.68 per diluted share for the quarter, totaling $6.14 for the half-year.</li><li>This marked a decline compared to the first quarter earnings primarily due to a decrease in average selling prices within its steel mills and steel products segments.</li></ul>

Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges.The company reported earnings of $2.68 per diluted share for the quarter, totaling $6.14 for the half-year.This marked a decline compared to the first quarter earnings primarily due to a decrease in average selling prices within its steel mills and steel products segments.

Nucor Corporation: What Is The Impact Of The Current Political & Trade Environments? - Major Drivers

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

<ul>
<li>Nidec's Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed</li>
<li>The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics</li>
<li>Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350</li>
</ul>


Nidec's Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed
The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics
Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350


Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

Insights on Companies in the Tesla Supply Chain

Tesla Supply Chain
Insights on Companies in the Tesla Supply Chain

Panasonic (6752): Blows Past Consensus

Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...

Michael Allen

Tesla's Quarterly Profit Outperformance And The 6 Major Factors Taking It Forward! - Financial Forecasts

Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings presented positive results making their stock catapult. The company delivered a decent performance amid a challenging...

Baptista Research

The Most Surprising Thing About Tesla's 3Q24

For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing. The staler the product line-up got, the more margins...

Fallacy Alarm

Nucor Corporation: What Is The Impact Of The Current Political & Trade Environments? - Major Drivers

Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

Nidec's Q2 results exceeded my expectations, with strong performance in small motors and appliances but weaker profits in automotive. Stock...

Mark Chadwick

Panasonic (6752): Blows Past Consensus

​Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...

Michael Allen

Tesla's Quarterly Profit Outperformance And The 6 Major Factors Taking It Forward! - Financial Forecasts

Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings presented positive results making their stock catapult. The company delivered a decent performance amid a challenging...

Baptista Research

The Most Surprising Thing About Tesla's 3Q24

For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing. The staler the product line-up got, the more margins...

Fallacy Alarm

Nucor Corporation: What Is The Impact Of The Current Political & Trade Environments? - Major Drivers

Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

​Nidec's Q2 results exceeded my expectations, with strong performance in small motors and appliances but weaker profits in automotive. Stock...

Mark Chadwick

Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...

Nidec's Q2 results exceeded my expectations, with strong performance in small motors and appliances but weaker profits in automotive. Stock...