Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Japan and US Central Banks continue to add fuel to the monetary fire</li>
<li>China consumption weakness is likely to spur a tangible response in the New Year</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Japan and US Central Banks continue to add fuel to the monetary fire
China consumption weakness is likely to spur a tangible response in the New Year


Overview #43 – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul><li>Crude oil futures were edging higher Friday, but broader concerns over a looming surplus in the new year left prices softer on the week and languishing at just above post-pandemic lows.</li><li>Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $60.47/b (2007 GMT) versus Thursday's settle of $59.82/b, while Feb26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $56.54/b against a previous close of $56/b.</li><li>Markets found only limited support over the week from geopolitical events, with the IEA's forecast of a near 4 million bpd glut in 2026 supressing prices.</li></ul>

Crude oil futures were edging higher Friday, but broader concerns over a looming surplus in the new year left prices softer on the week and languishing at just above post-pandemic lows.Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $60.47/b (2007 GMT) versus Thursday's settle of $59.82/b, while Feb26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $56.54/b against a previous close of $56/b.Markets found only limited support over the week from geopolitical events, with the IEA's forecast of a near 4 million bpd glut in 2026 supressing prices.

Oil futures: Crude heads for weekly losses on oversupply concerns

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Iron ore’s resilience looks fragile, supported by short-term supply disruptions, while weakening steel demand and looming Simandou volumes erode fundamentals.</li>
<li>Managed money participants trimmed their net long exposure, signalling profit-taking aligned with price action rather than a broader shift in market conviction.</li>
<li>The DCE-SGX spread lost momentum after rejecting the upper Bollinger band, breaking below key MAs and opening room for consolidation or further downside.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore’s resilience looks fragile, supported by short-term supply disruptions, while weakening steel demand and looming Simandou volumes erode fundamentals.
Managed money participants trimmed their net long exposure, signalling profit-taking aligned with price action rather than a broader shift in market conviction.
The DCE-SGX spread lost momentum after rejecting the upper Bollinger band, breaking below key MAs and opening room for consolidation or further downside.


Momentum Without Muscle: Why Iron Ore’s Recent Strength May Not Last

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving</li>
<li>Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy</li>
<li>China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan</li>
</ul>


China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving
Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy
China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan


China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

<ul><li>Crude oil futures Thursday extended midweek gains as geopolitics and the potential threat to supplies helped markets claw back some of the recent losses.</li><li>Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $59.99/b (1903 GMT) versus Wednesday's settle of $59.68/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at $56.13/b against a previous close of $55.94/b.</li><li>Benchmarks lifted off Tuesday's multi-year settlement lows on after US President Donald Trump said that the US will impose a shipping blockade Venezuela, targeting sanctioned oil tankers.</li></ul>

Crude oil futures Thursday extended midweek gains as geopolitics and the potential threat to supplies helped markets claw back some of the recent losses.Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $59.99/b (1903 GMT) versus Wednesday's settle of $59.68/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at $56.13/b against a previous close of $55.94/b.Benchmarks lifted off Tuesday's multi-year settlement lows on after US President Donald Trump said that the US will impose a shipping blockade Venezuela, targeting sanctioned oil tankers.

Oil futures: Brent steadies as Venezuela, Russia sanctions eyed

Insights Relevant to South Africa Equity Markets

South Africa Asset Management
Insights Relevant to South Africa Equity Markets

Overview #43 – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Banks continue to aid the commodity trade while China takes aim...

Rikki Malik

Oil futures: Crude heads for weekly losses on oversupply concerns

Crude oil futures were edging higher, but broader concerns over a looming surplus in the new year left prices softer on the week and languishing...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Momentum Without Muscle: Why Iron Ore’s Recent Strength May Not Last

Iron ore's resilience is at risk due to weakening steel demand and looming Simandou volumes, with managed money participants trimming their net...

Mint Finance

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

This report shows why China’s consumption push faces structural limits, why rate cuts won’t work, and how delayed reform raises risks for equities,...

Kok Peng Chan

Oil futures: Brent steadies as Venezuela, Russia sanctions eyed

Crude oil futures Thursday extended midweek gains as geopolitics and the potential threat to supplies helped markets....

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Overview #43 – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Banks continue to aid the commodity trade while China takes aim...

Rikki Malik

Oil futures: Crude heads for weekly losses on oversupply concerns

Crude oil futures were edging higher, but broader concerns over a looming surplus in the new year left prices softer on the week and languishing...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Momentum Without Muscle: Why Iron Ore’s Recent Strength May Not Last

​Iron ore's resilience is at risk due to weakening steel demand and looming Simandou volumes, with managed money participants trimming their net...

Mint Finance

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

This report shows why China’s consumption push faces structural limits, why rate cuts won’t work, and how delayed reform raises risks for equities,...

Kok Peng Chan

Oil futures: Brent steadies as Venezuela, Russia sanctions eyed

Crude oil futures Thursday extended midweek gains as geopolitics and the potential threat to supplies helped markets....

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Iron ore's resilience is at risk due to weakening steel demand and looming Simandou volumes, with managed money participants trimming their net...