Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd-69366efb-cf6b-404d-a0e4-c6b9b2e128dc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)</a> is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.</li>
<li>Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>'s significant index weighting, around 8% in key Hong Kong indices, means its earnings has the potential to impact broader market performance.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) / Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.

Tencent's significant index weighting, around 8% in key Hong Kong indices, means its earnings has the potential to impact broader market performance.


Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.</li>
<li>The flows here are still striking. &gt;25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.</li>
<li>A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included. </li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.
The flows here are still striking. &gt;25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.
A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending</li>
<li>Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases</li>
<li>Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth</li>
</ul>


Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending
Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases
Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth


Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 07/Mar, US crude inventories increased by 1.4m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel build. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 62 Bcf for the week ending 07/Mar, lower than analyst expectations of a 46 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>SNB Capital and United Securities cut Aramco's price targets. TotalEnergies CEO expects LNG prices to decline by decade’s end.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 07/Mar, US crude inventories increased by 1.4m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel build. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 62 Bcf for the week ending 07/Mar, lower than analyst expectations of a 46 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.
SNB Capital and United Securities cut Aramco's price targets. TotalEnergies CEO expects LNG prices to decline by decade’s end.


[ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

OUTsurance Group Limited operates as an insurance firm. The Company offers auto, home, life, and business insurance products and services. OUTsurance Group serves customers in South Africa.

<p>OUTsurance released H125 results on 14 March 2025, delivering 52% normalised EPS growth and return on equity (RoE) of 30.8%. South Africa (SA) property & casualty (P&C) delivered 32% earnings and 9% premium growth, while Youi (Australia) recorded 154% earnings and 22% premium growth. SA Life delivered 225% profit growth, while its Irish start-up made losses of ZAR246m (up 289%). Net asset value (NAV) per share was 870ZAc (large dividend payments over the period). It declared an interim dividend of 88.6c/share (up 44.8%). OUTsurance trades at a price to NAV of 7.5x, which is the highest level seen since its unbundling and superior to its peers.</p>

OUTsurance released H125 results on 14 March 2025, delivering 52% normalised EPS growth and return on equity (RoE) of 30.8%. South Africa (SA) property & casualty (P&C) delivered 32% earnings and 9% premium growth, while Youi (Australia) recorded 154% earnings and 22% premium growth. SA Life delivered 225% profit growth, while its Irish start-up made losses of ZAR246m (up 289%). Net asset value (NAV) per share was 870ZAc (large dividend payments over the period). It declared an interim dividend of 88.6c/share (up 44.8%). OUTsurance trades at a price to NAV of 7.5x, which is the highest level seen since its unbundling and superior to its peers.

OUTsurance — 52% increase in H125 earnings

Insights Relevant to South Africa Equity Markets

South Africa Asset Management
Insights Relevant to South Africa Equity Markets

Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Tencent to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025. Options pricing suggests a 4-6% move. Calendar spreads offer opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

SOUTHBOUND Connect volumes slow down in gross but record very high net. Net buying bias is still significant. Tech, and tech-ish consumer...

Travis Lundy

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

[ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub

US crude inventories rise, missing expectations, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall. Aramco's price targets cut, TotalEnergies CEO...

Mint Finance

OUTsurance — 52% increase in H125 earnings

OUTsurance released H125 results on 14 March 2025, delivering 52% normalised EPS growth and return on equity (RoE) of 30.8%. South Africa (SA)...

Edison Investment Research

Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

​Tencent to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025. Options pricing suggests a 4-6% move. Calendar spreads offer opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

SOUTHBOUND Connect volumes slow down in gross but record very high net. Net buying bias is still significant. Tech, and tech-ish consumer...

Travis Lundy

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

​Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

[ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub

​US crude inventories rise, missing expectations, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall. Aramco's price targets cut, TotalEnergies CEO...

Mint Finance

OUTsurance — 52% increase in H125 earnings

OUTsurance released H125 results on 14 March 2025, delivering 52% normalised EPS growth and return on equity (RoE) of 30.8%. South Africa (SA)...

Edison Investment Research

Tencent to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025. Options pricing suggests a 4-6% move. Calendar spreads offer opportunities.

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

US crude inventories rise, missing expectations, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall. Aramco's price targets cut, TotalEnergies CEO...