Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.</li>
<li>Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week</li>
<li>Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).</li>
</ul>


All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.
Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week
Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).


EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.</li>
<li>Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.</li>
<li>Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.</li>
</ul>


Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.
Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.
Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.


EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

VCredit Holdings Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers microloans, financing guarantees, financial leasing, and other services. VCredit Holdings also provides related consulting services.

<ul>
<li>When <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vcredit-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27143:1" rel="noopener">VCredit Holdings (2003 HK)</a>, a provider of consumer financial services in China, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman.</li>
<li>Well, we do have an Offer. Ma acquired 4.19% via two SPAs, lifting his stake to 44.04%. Stephen Liu (an ED) also acquired 1.43% via an SPA.</li>
<li>As Ma, Liu, and other parties, are presumed to be acting in concert, an <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1220/2024122001704.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unconditional MGO</a> is triggered. But at HK$1.80/share, a 9.09% discount to undisturbed.
</li>
</ul>


When VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman.
Well, we do have an Offer. Ma acquired 4.19% via two SPAs, lifting his stake to 44.04%. Stephen Liu (an ED) also acquired 1.43% via an SPA.
As Ma, Liu, and other parties, are presumed to be acting in concert, an unconditional MGO is triggered. But at HK$1.80/share, a 9.09% discount to undisturbed.



VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD449.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,163mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD449.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,163mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD993.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,219mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital Components.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD993.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,219mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital Components.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material

Sell / Short Ideas
Outperform on the downside

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Non-volatile price declines with implied vols rising, leading to historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions and implied vols not...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

Kospi's 20% drop from 52-week highs prompts increased hedging through out-of-the-money Puts, with implied volatility offering good value vs normal...

John Ley

VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About

Unless you have some strong opinion on the back-end, this is an avoid. Over time, provided VCredit stays bombed out, expect Ma/concert parties to...

David Blennerhassett

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

​Non-volatile price declines with implied vols rising, leading to historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions and implied vols not...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 16 - 20

​Kospi's 20% drop from 52-week highs prompts increased hedging through out-of-the-money Puts, with implied volatility offering good value vs normal...

John Ley

VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About

Unless you have some strong opinion on the back-end, this is an avoid. Over time, provided VCredit stays bombed out, expect Ma/concert parties to...

David Blennerhassett

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Celltrion

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hyundai Glovis, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Non-volatile price declines with implied vols rising, leading to historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions and implied vols not...

Kospi's 20% drop from 52-week highs prompts increased hedging through out-of-the-money Puts, with implied volatility offering good value vs normal...