Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.</li>
<li>However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); 
Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alpha Bank SA provides commercial banking services. The Bank offers lease financing, insurance, corporate banking, asset management, private banking, investment banking and securities brokerage, venture capital, portfolio management, payment systems, consulting, and real estate management services.

On 27 June, Moody’s upgraded Alpha Bank’s long-term senior-unsecured debt rating by two notches to Baa3 (Ba2 previously), its long- and short-term deposit ratings by one notch to Baa3/P-3 (Ba1/NP previously) and its long- and short-term counterparty credit risk (CCR) rating by one notch to Baa2/P-2 (Baa3/P-3 previously). The move takes Moody’s key ratings on Alpha to investment grade for the first time in 14 years. This is a further positive development for Alpha as it continues to execute its strategy and demonstrate recurring profitability and capital generation. S&P, Fitch and Capital Intelligence currently assign BB- (sub-investment grade) long-term debt ratings to Alpha Bank.

On 27 June, Moody’s upgraded Alpha Bank’s long-term senior-unsecured debt rating by two notches to Baa3 (Ba2 previously), its long- and short-term deposit ratings by one notch to Baa3/P-3 (Ba1/NP previously) and its long- and short-term counterparty credit risk (CCR) rating by one notch to Baa2/P-2 (Baa3/P-3 previously). The move takes Moody’s key ratings on Alpha to investment grade for the first time in 14 years. This is a further positive development for Alpha as it continues to execute its strategy and demonstrate recurring profitability and capital generation. S&P, Fitch and Capital Intelligence currently assign BB- (sub-investment grade) long-term debt ratings to Alpha Bank.

Alpha Bank - Moody’s raise to investment grade

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. operates banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, wealth management, investment, and online banking services. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank also conducts credit guarantee and safe deposit box businesses.

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (601825 CH)

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 16 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24:  A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Capitol Health Limited is mainly focus in the diagnostic imaging business through radiology clinics in Australia. It has previously provided dental surgeries and facilities to self employed dentists who carry on their own dental practices. The Company had also provided administration and management services.

<ul>
<li>Diagnostic imaging provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a> has announced it has entered into a process deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-diagnostics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24306:1" rel="noopener">Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)</a>
</li>
<li>This non-binding indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, involves 0.12849 new IDX shares for each share of Capitol.  The next step is four weeks of two-way confirmatory due diligence.</li>
<li>
The implied Offer Price under the scrip terms is A$0.3284/share. Should the transaction complete, Integral would hold 63% in the combined group. This is the second Integral/Capitol merger attempt.
</li>
</ul>


Diagnostic imaging provider Capitol Health (CAJ AU) has announced it has entered into a process deed with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)

This non-binding indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, involves 0.12849 new IDX shares for each share of Capitol.  The next step is four weeks of two-way confirmatory due diligence.

The implied Offer Price under the scrip terms is A$0.3284/share. Should the transaction complete, Integral would hold 63% in the combined group. This is the second Integral/Capitol merger attempt.



Capitol Health (CAJ AU)/Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU): An Improved Image

Sector/market-neutral pairs and long/short trades

Pair Trades and Long/Short Ideas
Sector/market-neutral pairs and long/short trades

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

The expected ADDs have underperformed the expected DELs in the last month and the last three months which means avoiding the standard LONG-SHORT...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Alpha Bank - Moody’s raise to investment grade

On 27 June, Moody’s upgraded Alpha Bank’s long-term senior-unsecured debt rating by two notches to Baa3 (Ba2 previously), its long- and short-term...

Edison Investment Research

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum

The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could see one-way flows of US$2bn and US$2.5bn respectively. Since roughly a third of the reference...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Capitol Health (CAJ AU)/Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU): An Improved Image

IF short IDX, long Capitol here, you're probably short Integrals FY24E final divi also. I'm not entirely comfortable with ACCC risk. Without that...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

The expected ADDs have underperformed the expected DELs in the last month and the last three months which means avoiding the standard LONG-SHORT...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Alpha Bank - Moody’s raise to investment grade

On 27 June, Moody’s upgraded Alpha Bank’s long-term senior-unsecured debt rating by two notches to Baa3 (Ba2 previously), its long- and short-term...

Edison Investment Research

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum

The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could see one-way flows of US$2bn and US$2.5bn respectively. Since roughly a third of the reference...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Capitol Health (CAJ AU)/Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU): An Improved Image

IF short IDX, long Capitol here, you're probably short Integrals FY24E final divi also. I'm not entirely comfortable with ACCC risk. Without that...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 24: A Long-Short Basket Trade Idea with High Momentum