Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Communications Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>"Beautiful Skew" came back slightly. Not huge, but OK. On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 0.8%.</li>
<li>Last week's short reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29191:1" rel="noopener">Remegen (9995 HK)</a> gained 8.3% on the week in Hs and the H underperformed the A by 7% Friday to Friday, 4.5% if VWAPed Monday.</li>
<li>AH premia are likely still in a widening phase but weakness in speculative A-shares may dampen overall moves even if pairs are volatile. New reco this week.</li>
</ul>


"Beautiful Skew" came back slightly. Not huge, but OK. On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 0.8%.
Last week's short reco on Remegen (9995 HK) gained 8.3% on the week in Hs and the H underperformed the A by 7% Friday to Friday, 4.5% if VWAPed Monday.
AH premia are likely still in a widening phase but weakness in speculative A-shares may dampen overall moves even if pairs are volatile. New reco this week.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Sep 2025):  AH Premia Contract Slightly, Beautiful Skew Better

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Communications Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)</a> is a good strategy to capitalise on the recent underperformance of CCCC.</li>
<li>CCCC has a stronger contract momentum than CRG - its FY24 new contracts were up 7.3%, but CRG was down 12.4%. CCCC is also better positioned for urban construction growth.</li>
<li>In terms of dividend yield, CCCC is higher at 6.8% for FY25, yet CRG is only 6.3%. CCCC's performance should pick up in the rest of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Long China Communications Construction (1800 HK), short China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) is a good strategy to capitalise on the recent underperformance of CCCC.
CCCC has a stronger contract momentum than CRG - its FY24 new contracts were up 7.3%, but CRG was down 12.4%. CCCC is also better positioned for urban construction growth.
In terms of dividend yield, CCCC is higher at 6.8% for FY25, yet CRG is only 6.3%. CCCC's performance should pick up in the rest of 2025.


China Pair Trade: Long China Comm Const (1800 HK), Short China Railway Group (390 HK)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-strategy-it-is-the-foreign-exchange-impact-stupid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99729" rel="noopener">China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!</a> </li>
<li>The new beneficiaries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-energy-engineering-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21017:1" rel="noopener">China Energy Engineering (3996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a> generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  </li>
</ul>


As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid! 
The new beneficiaries are CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK), China Energy Engineering (3996 HK), China Communications Construction (1800 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK) and AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK). 

CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  


China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> saw its 4Q23 new contracts increased 14%, faster than the 13.5% growth in 9M23. Full-year new contracts are 3.5% ahead of its target.</li>
<li>Our estimated backlog of Rmb4.26trn at end-FY23 is 25.6% higher than end-FY22. Such backlog covers 4.9x FY24F revenue, which is a 0.6pp improvement YoY.</li>
<li>The inclusion of market cap management as a KPI for senior SOE officials will drive return, while CSRC's encouragement to raise payout ratio may easily push yield to over 10%.</li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK) saw its 4Q23 new contracts increased 14%, faster than the 13.5% growth in 9M23. Full-year new contracts are 3.5% ahead of its target.
Our estimated backlog of Rmb4.26trn at end-FY23 is 25.6% higher than end-FY22. Such backlog covers 4.9x FY24F revenue, which is a 0.6pp improvement YoY.
The inclusion of market cap management as a KPI for senior SOE officials will drive return, while CSRC's encouragement to raise payout ratio may easily push yield to over 10%.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): New Contracts Gathering Steam

<ul>
<li>The fall in share price in the last five months have sent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> back to very attractive level. The market has misread the strong 2Q23 result.</li>
<li>2Q23 recurring net profit surged 68.5% as 2Q22 has an inflated base. Gross margin has recorded meaningful YoY recovery while capex, particularly for BOT, has scaled back significantly. </li>
<li>There should not be concerns about CCCC's contract outlook. Its backlog is enough to cover 4.9x FY23F revenue and its PER of 2.7x has provided more than sufficient buffer.</li>
</ul>


The fall in share price in the last five months have sent China Communications Construction (1800 HK) back to very attractive level. The market has misread the strong 2Q23 result.
2Q23 recurring net profit surged 68.5% as 2Q22 has an inflated base. Gross margin has recorded meaningful YoY recovery while capex, particularly for BOT, has scaled back significantly. 
There should not be concerns about CCCC's contract outlook. Its backlog is enough to cover 4.9x FY23F revenue and its PER of 2.7x has provided more than sufficient buffer.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Well Worth Revisiting

China

China Communications Construction Company Ltd. is a transportation infrastructure group.  The Company is involved in infrastructure construction, infrastructure design, dredging, and port machinery manufacturing.  China Communications has operations worldwide.

China Communications Construction (1800 HK)

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China Communications Construction (1800 HK)

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China Comm Const (1800 HK): Well Worth Revisiting

CCCC has become very attractive due to an unjustified fall in share price. Recurring net profit surged 68.5% in 2Q23 and its contract outlook is...

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