Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Connect Group PLC specializes in distribution services. The Company specializes in the distribution of newspapers and magazines, and books. Connect Group also distributes consumable products to the education and care markets.

<p>Smiths News’ FY24 trading was robust and results came in ahead of consensus. This, along with the debt refinancing announced in May, has resulted in lower average debt, which in turn has allowed the company to implement its revised capital allocation policy (communicated in May) and its diversification ambitions. Furthermore, it has lifted its total ordinary dividend from 4.15p to 5.15p/share and announced a ‘special’ dividend of a further 2.0p/share.</p>

Smiths News’ FY24 trading was robust and results came in ahead of consensus. This, along with the debt refinancing announced in May, has resulted in lower average debt, which in turn has allowed the company to implement its revised capital allocation policy (communicated in May) and its diversification ambitions. Furthermore, it has lifted its total ordinary dividend from 4.15p to 5.15p/share and announced a ‘special’ dividend of a further 2.0p/share.

Smiths News - FY24 trading good, special dividend proposed

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

<ul>
<li>Due to reduced seasonal demand, 4Q24 shipments will decrease by 10% to 12% (QoQ, while the average selling price (ASP) will increase by 3% to 5% QoQ.</li>
<li>Vanguard's investment in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/episil-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7688:1" rel="noopener">Episil Holdings (3707 TT)</a> is focused on the 8" SiC process, indicating Vanguard's ventures into the 8" SiC foundry sector in the near future.</li>
<li>Vanguard is confident in maintaining a minimum DPS policy of NT$4.5</li>
</ul>


Due to reduced seasonal demand, 4Q24 shipments will decrease by 10% to 12% (QoQ, while the average selling price (ASP) will increase by 3% to 5% QoQ.
Vanguard's investment in Episil Holdings (3707 TT) is focused on the 8" SiC process, indicating Vanguard's ventures into the 8" SiC foundry sector in the near future.
Vanguard is confident in maintaining a minimum DPS policy of NT$4.5


Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is a Bit Better, but Investment in EPISIL Isn't a near Term Payback

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>The real reason for CNPGC’s decision to abandon its promise may be "extraordinary". The "national security issue" seems to be a more reasonable explanation for the failure of this privatization.</li>
<li>A sustainable rebound in share prices will have to depend on obvious improvement in fundamentals and attractive dividends.We changed our valuation forecast. The investment logic of China TCM has changed.</li>
<li>China TCM may not deliver excess returns in the short term. If investors can't wait that long, offload directly and moving on to other opportunities is an option to consider.</li>
</ul>


The real reason for CNPGC’s decision to abandon its promise may be "extraordinary". The "national security issue" seems to be a more reasonable explanation for the failure of this privatization.
A sustainable rebound in share prices will have to depend on obvious improvement in fundamentals and attractive dividends.We changed our valuation forecast. The investment logic of China TCM has changed.
China TCM may not deliver excess returns in the short term. If investors can't wait that long, offload directly and moving on to other opportunities is an option to consider.


China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, car navigation systems, digital devices, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associated companies around the world.

<ul>
<li>Panasonic blew out consensus forecasts in Q2 and trades at 60% of book value. </li>
<li>Jtekt missed but raised its dividend, which was already very high. </li>
<li>Aisin missed, but by a trivial amount, and the price/book value fell back to a level that marked support on multiple occasions since the Pandemic started.</li>
</ul>


Panasonic blew out consensus forecasts in Q2 and trades at 60% of book value. 
Jtekt missed but raised its dividend, which was already very high. 
Aisin missed, but by a trivial amount, and the price/book value fell back to a level that marked support on multiple occasions since the Pandemic started.


New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

<ul><li>Spark (SPK) downgraded its FY25 EBITDAI guidance by -4%, driven by Mobile competition and the transition within Cloud.</li><li>What is structural and what is cyclical? There is no doubt that NZ macro conditions have been weak, so the answer is probably a bit of both.</li><li>That said, the scale is tipping in favour of structural. Mobile and Broadband have not historically been cyclical, Cloud is almost certainly structural — SPK admitted as much, but some of the halving of EBITDAI in IT services is likely cyclical. </li></ul>

Spark (SPK) downgraded its FY25 EBITDAI guidance by -4%, driven by Mobile competition and the transition within Cloud.What is structural and what is cyclical? There is no doubt that NZ macro conditions have been weak, so the answer is probably a bit of both.That said, the scale is tipping in favour of structural. Mobile and Broadband have not historically been cyclical, Cloud is almost certainly structural — SPK admitted as much, but some of the halving of EBITDAI in IT services is likely cyclical. 

Dividends
Insights on Dividends

Smiths News - FY24 trading good, special dividend proposed

Smiths News’ FY24 trading was robust and results came in ahead of consensus. This, along with the debt refinancing announced in May, has resulted...

Edison Investment Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is a Bit Better, but Investment in EPISIL Isn't a near Term Payback

4Q24 shipments to decrease by 10-12% due to reduced demand, while ASP will increase by 3-5%. Vanguard's investment in Episil focuses on 8" SiC...

Patrick Liao

China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Panasonic (6752): Blows Past Consensus

Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...

Michael Allen

Spark NZ - No Spark

What is structural and what is cyclical? There is no doubt that NZ macro conditions have been weak, so the answer is probably a bit of both.

Forsyth Barr

Smiths News - FY24 trading good, special dividend proposed

Smiths News’ FY24 trading was robust and results came in ahead of consensus. This, along with the debt refinancing announced in May, has resulted...

Edison Investment Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is a Bit Better, but Investment in EPISIL Isn't a near Term Payback

​4Q24 shipments to decrease by 10-12% due to reduced demand, while ASP will increase by 3-5%. Vanguard's investment in Episil focuses on 8" SiC...

Patrick Liao

China TCM (570.HK) Update - The Real Reason For the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

​China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Panasonic (6752): Blows Past Consensus

​Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...

Michael Allen

Spark NZ - No Spark

What is structural and what is cyclical? There is no doubt that NZ macro conditions have been weak, so the answer is probably a bit of both.

Forsyth Barr

4Q24 shipments to decrease by 10-12% due to reduced demand, while ASP will increase by 3-5%. Vanguard's investment in Episil focuses on 8" SiC...

China TCM's decision to abandon privatization may be due to national security concerns. We lowered 2024 forecast. Valuation rebound rely on...

Panasonic outperforms in Q2, trading at 60% of book value; Jtekt misses but raises dividend; Aisin misses slightly, price/book value falls to...