Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The District Court of The Hague has refused to block a proposed Dutch handling surcharge on ecommerce parcels with a value of less that EUR 150 imported from outside the European Union.</li>
<li>The court is of the opinion that intervening would amount to interference in political decision-making.</li>
<li>The case was brought by logistics service provider ViaEurope, which argued that the planned surcharge violates EU customs law and was announced with too little notice, threatening the company’s survival. </li>
</ul>


The District Court of The Hague has refused to block a proposed Dutch handling surcharge on ecommerce parcels with a value of less that EUR 150 imported from outside the European Union.
The court is of the opinion that intervening would amount to interference in political decision-making.
The case was brought by logistics service provider ViaEurope, which argued that the planned surcharge violates EU customs law and was announced with too little notice, threatening the company’s survival. 


Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Inflation data broadly disappointed expectations over the past week. The labour market news was more mixed, but higher UK and US unemployment rates raise eyebrows.</li><li>Policymakers behaved themselves, with no surprises and wide dispersion, including a BOJ hike, while the BoE delivered the finely balanced hawkish cut we expected.</li><li>The release calendar adopts a holiday stance for the next few weeks, with only UK and US Q3 GDP data out before Christmas. This publication will be back on 9 January.</li></ul>

Inflation data broadly disappointed expectations over the past week. The labour market news was more mixed, but higher UK and US unemployment rates raise eyebrows.Policymakers behaved themselves, with no surprises and wide dispersion, including a BOJ hike, while the BoE delivered the finely balanced hawkish cut we expected.The release calendar adopts a holiday stance for the next few weeks, with only UK and US Q3 GDP data out before Christmas. This publication will be back on 9 January.

<ul><li>Stronger wage and service price inflation have shrunk the Q1 target undershoot to only 0.1pp, removing the space that doves hoped might free the ECB to cut again.</li><li>Spending over half the year on hold and in a “good place” creates an inertia that will be hard to break towards another cut. We still see the ECB’s easing cycle as over.</li><li>Rolling the disinflationary trend back a year helps soften hawkish pressures, but losing this amid ongoing strength seems more likely to push the ECB into a hawkish direction.</li></ul>

Stronger wage and service price inflation have shrunk the Q1 target undershoot to only 0.1pp, removing the space that doves hoped might free the ECB to cut again.Spending over half the year on hold and in a “good place” creates an inertia that will be hard to break towards another cut. We still see the ECB’s easing cycle as over.Rolling the disinflationary trend back a year helps soften hawkish pressures, but losing this amid ongoing strength seems more likely to push the ECB into a hawkish direction.

Equity Bottom-Up

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | to close six e-commerce fulfillment centers by the end of 1Q26 • ASML Holding | Chinese rumoured to have copied an EUV machine • SBM Offshore | extends contracts for 2 FPSOs and completes sale FPSO Aseng • Sif Holding | affirms 2025-2026 outlook • Dutch politics | coalition talks: significant policy divide on fiscal discipline</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | to close six e-commerce fulfillment centers by the end of 1Q26 • ASML Holding | Chinese rumoured to have copied an EUV machine • SBM Offshore | extends contracts for 2 FPSOs and completes sale FPSO Aseng • Sif Holding | affirms 2025-2026 outlook • Dutch politics | coalition talks: significant policy divide on fiscal discipline

ASML Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul><li>Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was marginally stronger than before.</li><li>Service prices are not converging on levels consistent with the ECB’s target, and many underlying metrics are too high. The median is a notable exception, broadly below 2%.</li><li>The ECB’s “good place” assessment should be unaffected by any of this, nor the base effects driving things slightly below the target in January. It should sound neutral.</li></ul>

Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was marginally stronger than before.Service prices are not converging on levels consistent with the ECB’s target, and many underlying metrics are too high. The median is a notable exception, broadly below 2%.The ECB’s “good place” assessment should be unaffected by any of this, nor the base effects driving things slightly below the target in January. It should sound neutral.

Netherlands
Insights on Netherlands

What's News in Amsterdam

The District Court of The Hague has refused to block a proposed Dutch handling surcharge on ecommerce parcels with a value of less that EUR 150...

The IDEA!

HEW: Dovish Data Dumps

Inflation data broadly disappointed expectations over the past week. The labour market news was more mixed, but higher UK and US unemployment...

Phil Rush

ECB: Wishfully Rolling Disinflation

Stronger wage and service price inflation have shrunk the Q1 target undershoot to only 0.1pp, removing the space that doves hoped might free the...

Phil Rush

ASML Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | to close six e-commerce fulfillment centers by the end of 1Q26 • ASML Holding | Chinese rumoured to have...

The IDEA!

EA: Eating A Disinflationary Revision

Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was...

Phil Rush