Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Fonterra Co-Operative Group / Event-Driven

Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd is a New Zealand multinational dairy co-operative and its farmer shareholders are the suppliers of milk to Fonterra in New Zealand. The Company operates Fonterra Shareholders' Fund, which provides additional financial flexibility for farmer shareholders who would have the opportunity to sell economic rights of shares to the fund.

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fonterra-announces-step-change-in-strategic-direction.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16th May 2024</a>, dairy co-operative <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fonterra-co-operative-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28146:1" rel="noopener">Fonterra (FCG NZ)</a> announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.</li>
<li>Last November, Fonterra <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fonterra-to-proceed-with-sale-process-for-consumer-businesses.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the "Mainland Group". </li>
<li>However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bega-cheese-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7272:1" rel="noopener">Bega Cheese (BGA AU)</a> should the divestment proceed. </li>
</ul>


On the 16th May 2024, dairy co-operative Fonterra (FCG NZ) announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.
Last November, Fonterra said it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the "Mainland Group". 
However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with Bega Cheese (BGA AU) should the divestment proceed. 


Fonterra (FCG NZ)'s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 25, 2025 caused a brief market correction, with the Nifty 50 falling by 0.86% which was in line with past trends.</li>
<li>Historically, geopolitical shocks like the Kargil War (1999) and Pulwama attack (2019) caused minimal corrections, with the Sensex rebounding by 33% post-Kargil and 400 points in two sessions after 26/11.</li>
<li>The market’s swift recovery, with the Nifty gaining 1.20% on April 28, 2025. Experts project a mild 5-10% correction if tensions escalate, followed by a return to fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 25, 2025 caused a brief market correction, with the Nifty 50 falling by 0.86% which was in line with past trends.
Historically, geopolitical shocks like the Kargil War (1999) and Pulwama attack (2019) caused minimal corrections, with the Sensex rebounding by 33% post-Kargil and 400 points in two sessions after 26/11.
The market’s swift recovery, with the Nifty gaining 1.20% on April 28, 2025. Experts project a mild 5-10% correction if tensions escalate, followed by a return to fundamentals.


Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The past weeks have seen multiple geopolitical flashpoints emerge in Asia as various state and non-state actors take increasingly brazen steps to pursue their respective agendas.</li>
<li>The aftermath of the Kashmir terrorist attack has seen New Delhi and Islamabad ramp up retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Beijing is seizing Sandy Clay and intensifying coercive tactics against Taiwan.</li>
<li>An inward-looking Washington and an unready China mean that there are no “adults in the room” who can moderate geopolitical risks, making such flashpoints more dangerous. </li>
</ul>


The past weeks have seen multiple geopolitical flashpoints emerge in Asia as various state and non-state actors take increasingly brazen steps to pursue their respective agendas.
The aftermath of the Kashmir terrorist attack has seen New Delhi and Islamabad ramp up retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Beijing is seizing Sandy Clay and intensifying coercive tactics against Taiwan.
An inward-looking Washington and an unready China mean that there are no “adults in the room” who can moderate geopolitical risks, making such flashpoints more dangerous. 


Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.</li>
<li>Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.</a>
</li>
</ul>


Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN),  Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.



Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

<ul>
<li>Pakistan’s suspension of bilateral trade with India impacts supply chains, but India’s diversified trade routes through third countries like Dubai and Singapore provide resilience.  </li>
<li>India’s trade surplus with Pakistan is at risk, particularly in key sectors like pharmaceuticals, tea, and fertilizers, which could cause supply disruptions in Pakistan.</li>
<li>India’s economy remains largely unaffected due to negligible imports of $0.48 Million, while Pakistan faces heightened inflation and shortages of critical goods, deepening economic strain.</li>
</ul>


Pakistan’s suspension of bilateral trade with India impacts supply chains, but India’s diversified trade routes through third countries like Dubai and Singapore provide resilience.  
India’s trade surplus with Pakistan is at risk, particularly in key sectors like pharmaceuticals, tea, and fertilizers, which could cause supply disruptions in Pakistan.
India’s economy remains largely unaffected due to negligible imports of $0.48 Million, while Pakistan faces heightened inflation and shortages of critical goods, deepening economic strain.


Chartered Insights: The Fallout of Indo-Pak Trade Suspension April,2025

New Zealand
Insights on New Zealand

Fonterra (FCG NZ)'s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

The bulk of the divestment appears baked into Fonterra's share price. The court decision is, however, likely a minor blip. A sale would be a...

David Blennerhassett

Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets

The Pahalgam terrorist attack led to a brief market correction, but history shows that geopolitical shocks have minimal long-term impact on the...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder

Geopolitical tensions rise in Asia as state and non-state actors escalate actions, with no moderating influence in sight.

Manu Bhaskaran

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Chartered Insights: The Fallout of Indo-Pak Trade Suspension April,2025

Pakistan's suspension of trade with India impacts supply chains, but India's routes through third countries provide resilience, risking India's...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Fonterra (FCG NZ)'s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

The bulk of the divestment appears baked into Fonterra's share price. The court decision is, however, likely a minor blip. A sale would be a...

David Blennerhassett

Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets

​The Pahalgam terrorist attack led to a brief market correction, but history shows that geopolitical shocks have minimal long-term impact on the...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder

​Geopolitical tensions rise in Asia as state and non-state actors escalate actions, with no moderating influence in sight.

Manu Bhaskaran

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

​Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Chartered Insights: The Fallout of Indo-Pak Trade Suspension April,2025

​Pakistan's suspension of trade with India impacts supply chains, but India's routes through third countries provide resilience, risking India's...

Sudarshan Bhandari

The Pahalgam terrorist attack led to a brief market correction, but history shows that geopolitical shocks have minimal long-term impact on the...

Geopolitical tensions rise in Asia as state and non-state actors escalate actions, with no moderating influence in sight.

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Pakistan's suspension of trade with India impacts supply chains, but India's routes through third countries provide resilience, risking India's...