Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.</li><li>The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.</li><li>Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.</li></ul>

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025</li><li>China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit</li><li>Global trade and growth will initially benefit from a frontloading ahead of the tariff rises, before slowing sharply later in 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hitGlobal trade and growth will initially benefit from a frontloading ahead of the tariff rises, before slowing sharply later in 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.</li>
<li>In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.</li>
<li>Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips</li>
</ul>


Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.
In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.
Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips


Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

<ul><li>Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.</li><li>The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.</li><li>Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.</li></ul>

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.

<ul><li>This analysis shows that the emission reduction trend in sectors in the post-Paris period (2017-2023) would not – if it continued – lead to achieving the 2030 target</li><li>Indeed, following the post-Paris period trend in GHG emissions, the 2030 emissions reduction target (55% below 1990 level) will not be achieved, with a 5% gap</li><li>The recent analysis by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) even suggests that on the basis of current policies the post-Paris emission reduction trend will slow for many sectors</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This analysis shows that the emission reduction trend in sectors in the post-Paris period (2017-2023) would not – if it continued – lead to achieving the 2030 targetIndeed, following the post-Paris period trend in GHG emissions, the 2030 emissions reduction target (55% below 1990 level) will not be achieved, with a 5% gapThe recent analysis by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) even suggests that on the basis of current policies the post-Paris emission reduction trend will slow for many sectorsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ESG Economist - Five climate challenges in Dutch climate sectors

Netherlands
Insights on Netherlands

HEW: Misaligned Data Focus For FX

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates...

Phil Rush

Key views Global Outlook 2025

The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025 China will bear the brunt, but...

ABN AMRO

Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.

Sudarshan Bhandari

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to...

Phil Rush

ESG Economist - Five climate challenges in Dutch climate sectors

This analysis shows that the emission reduction trend in sectors in the post-Paris period (2017-2023) would not – if it continued – lead to...

ABN AMRO

HEW: Misaligned Data Focus For FX

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates...

Phil Rush

Key views Global Outlook 2025

The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025 China will bear the brunt, but...

ABN AMRO

Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

​Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.

Sudarshan Bhandari

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to...

Phil Rush

ESG Economist - Five climate challenges in Dutch climate sectors

This analysis shows that the emission reduction trend in sectors in the post-Paris period (2017-2023) would not – if it continued – lead to...

ABN AMRO

Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.