Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The outside view matters most: every major tech revolution in history ended up with overinvestment and a painful reset, making crashes the rule, not the exception.</li>
<li>The inside view always feels unique all the time – but eye-watering spending, speculative capital, financial engineering, and the belief that “this time is different” were present in past frenzies, too.</li>
<li>You don’t need to time the top: build a more resilient portfolio by trimming your profit, limiting position sizes, avoiding crowding, while using diversification, trend rules, or selective hedges.</li>
</ul>


The outside view matters most: every major tech revolution in history ended up with overinvestment and a painful reset, making crashes the rule, not the exception.
The inside view always feels unique all the time – but eye-watering spending, speculative capital, financial engineering, and the belief that “this time is different” were present in past frenzies, too.
You don’t need to time the top: build a more resilient portfolio by trimming your profit, limiting position sizes, avoiding crowding, while using diversification, trend rules, or selective hedges.


Your AI Super Forecast: Will It Boom Or Bust?

Market Strategist, RW Advisory

Ron William

Market Strategist

RW Advisory

RW Advisory, founded by Ron William, a market strategist with 20+ years of experience, offers macro/tactical research and advisory to a wide range of financial institutions.

<ul>
<li>US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. </li>
<li>Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. </li>
<li>Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.</li>
</ul>


US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. 
Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. 
Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.


Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

<ul>
<li>This neat and tidy method can deliver crisis protection and smoother returns to your portfolio, using just four ETFs and a once-a-month adjustment</li>
<li>When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. </li>
<li>But sometimes the smartest move is also the simplest: following the trend. Here’s a neat and tidy way to keep your portfolio in line with where the prices are heading.</li>
</ul>


This neat and tidy method can deliver crisis protection and smoother returns to your portfolio, using just four ETFs and a once-a-month adjustment
When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. 
But sometimes the smartest move is also the simplest: following the trend. Here’s a neat and tidy way to keep your portfolio in line with where the prices are heading.


The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode</li>
<li>WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms</li>
<li>Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up</li>
</ul>


By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode
WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms
Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up


<ul>
<li>Technological revolutions follow a sequence: they start with a disruptive “installation phase”, then go through a critical “turning point”, and are finally followed by a “deployment phase”.</li>
<li>According to Carlota Perez, AI isn’t the start of a new technological revolution: it’s a critical milestone in the current, longstanding “information and telecommunication” revolution.</li>
<li>Being aware of different phases is valuable when investing. It can help you play the contrarian card – staying cautious during the frenzy and making bolder bets during the downturns.</li>
</ul>


Technological revolutions follow a sequence: they start with a disruptive “installation phase”, then go through a critical “turning point”, and are finally followed by a “deployment phase”.
According to Carlota Perez, AI isn’t the start of a new technological revolution: it’s a critical milestone in the current, longstanding “information and telecommunication” revolution.
Being aware of different phases is valuable when investing. It can help you play the contrarian card – staying cautious during the frenzy and making bolder bets during the downturns.


AI And Investing In The New Technological Revolution

Cayman Islands
Insights on Cayman Islands

Your AI Super Forecast: Will It Boom Or Bust?

Let’s not waste time blowing bubbles: we won’t know we’re in one until it bursts, after all. Instead, let’s see if we’re in for a crash – and more...

Finimize Research

Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

US equities weaken as AI leaders unwind; volatility rises amid late-cycle pressures. Gold holds, growth falters. Discipline, diversification, and...

Ron William

The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works

When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. But sometimes the smartest move is...

Finimize Research

Tracking the AI Cycle : A Macro View

We provide a macro view and three indicators which investors can use to track the AI cycle. They are no where near a 1999 dot-com bubble scenario...

Kok Peng Chan

AI And Investing In The New Technological Revolution

Understanding the phases of technological revolutions can guide investment strategies, with AI seen as a critical milestone in the current...

Finimize Research

Your AI Super Forecast: Will It Boom Or Bust?

Let’s not waste time blowing bubbles: we won’t know we’re in one until it bursts, after all. Instead, let’s see if we’re in for a crash – and more...

Finimize Research

Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

US equities weaken as AI leaders unwind; volatility rises amid late-cycle pressures. Gold holds, growth falters. Discipline, diversification, and...

Ron William

The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works

When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. But sometimes the smartest move is...

Finimize Research

Tracking the AI Cycle : A Macro View

We provide a macro view and three indicators which investors can use to track the AI cycle. They are no where near a 1999 dot-com bubble scenario...

Kok Peng Chan

AI And Investing In The New Technological Revolution

​Understanding the phases of technological revolutions can guide investment strategies, with AI seen as a critical milestone in the current...

Finimize Research

Understanding the phases of technological revolutions can guide investment strategies, with AI seen as a critical milestone in the current...