Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

RoboSense Technology Co., Ltd provides LiDAR and perception solutions. The Company offers hardware, sensors, and AI perception software. RoboSense Technology applies its products in a wide range of application scenarios, particularly ADAS (advanced driving assistance system) and robotics. RoboSense Technology serves customers in China and North America.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> has seen its sales of LiDAR solution systems grow substantially as it achieved the ability to mass produce for its customers.
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<li>The company integrates proprietary hardware and software, creating a barrier to entry for most LiDAR competitors, who produce only the hardware system.</li>
<li>Robosense announced a strong set of results for 3Q24 and expects to be profitable at some time in 2025.  The company has been actively buying back shares. </li>
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Robosense Technology (2498 HK) has seen its sales of LiDAR solution systems grow substantially as it achieved the ability to mass produce for its customers.

The company integrates proprietary hardware and software, creating a barrier to entry for most LiDAR competitors, who produce only the hardware system.
Robosense announced a strong set of results for 3Q24 and expects to be profitable at some time in 2025.  The company has been actively buying back shares. 


Robosense Technology, Driving in the Fast Lane While No One Is Looking

DiDi Chuxing Inc operates passenger transportation platforms. The Company provides mobility solutions, cloud computing, and other application based services. DiDi Chuxing serves customers worldwide.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.
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<li>Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.</li>
<li>The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.</li>
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DiDi Global (DIDI US) has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.

Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.
The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.


2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Macroeconomics

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<li>The US Net International Investment Position (NIIP) as a debtor country has ballooned since the GFC, attracting global demand for US assets, which feeds demand for the dollar.</li>
<li>Historically high dollar demand has allowed the US to enjoy the benefits of low interest rates and created a historic bull market in US equities.</li>
<li>As the US continues to use its currency for geopolitical purposes, countries have begun to question dollar hegemony.  The US fights against any country that tries to weaken the dollar</li>
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The US Net International Investment Position (NIIP) as a debtor country has ballooned since the GFC, attracting global demand for US assets, which feeds demand for the dollar.
Historically high dollar demand has allowed the US to enjoy the benefits of low interest rates and created a historic bull market in US equities.
As the US continues to use its currency for geopolitical purposes, countries have begun to question dollar hegemony.  The US fights against any country that tries to weaken the dollar


The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters!

Cross Asset Strategy

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<li>During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.
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During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.


MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

First Pacific Company Limited is an investment holding company with operations located in Asia-Pacific. The Company principally invests in consumer food products, infrastructure, natural resources, and telecommunications.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
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First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Asian Hedge Fund manager based in HK/SG with over 20 years of experience managing Asian Long/Short Equity funds. Macroeconomic top-down analysis generates thematic investments that are further researched from the bottom-up. Research is supplemented with advanced technical analysis. 
Previous experience includes M&A with Morgan Stanley and CPA with Deloitte in NYC. Wharton MBA.

David Mudd
Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

Robosense Technology, Driving in the Fast Lane While No One Is Looking

On 12/11 the company announced that it plans to raise $277.5mm via a share placement of 10mm shares to at least 6 independent and corporate...

David Mudd

2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Didi Global has become EBITDA positive and is expanding rapidly into Tier 3 cities where it has an technical and market share advantage. The...

David Mudd

The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters!

The US NIIP has surged to -$22T as foreign investors have fed dollar demand through US equity and debt purchases. Nations now question $ hegemony...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Hong Kong show decreased volatility and increased mainland buying continue since the US election. YUM China share price broke out (golden...

David Mudd

BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

First Pacific announced a "Possible Spin-Off and Separate Listing of Maynilad Water Services". This action fits with our insight views that the...

David Mudd