Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After several months of a technical top-consolidation, the US market is entering a bear market.  The piercing of the Magnificent-7 bubble will continue to drive selling pressure in the market.</li>
<li>Inflation pressures will tie the Fed's hands to bail out the market with another Fed Put.  Another market bailout would cost much more than the $5 trillion COVID bailout.</li>
<li>The administration's policy sequencing is pushing inflation expectations higher as the immediate tariff implementation supersedes other anti-inflationary policies, which will take longer to implement.</li>
</ul>


After several months of a technical top-consolidation, the US market is entering a bear market.  The piercing of the Magnificent-7 bubble will continue to drive selling pressure in the market.
Inflation pressures will tie the Fed's hands to bail out the market with another Fed Put.  Another market bailout would cost much more than the $5 trillion COVID bailout.
The administration's policy sequencing is pushing inflation expectations higher as the immediate tariff implementation supersedes other anti-inflationary policies, which will take longer to implement.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.</li>
<li>China's platform companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> have released their own AI models.</li>
<li>As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.
China's platform companies like Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) , Tencent (700 HK) , Baidu (9888 HK) , and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) have released their own AI models.
As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.


DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>The initial target range for the S&amp;P in the US bear market is 4800 to 5000. This level also coincides with the technical level of -20% from the top.</li>
<li>The stock market and economy in the US are highly co-dependent, and the bear market will cause consumption to fall more than in previous market downturns.</li>
<li>Foreign investors have started to reduce their overweight US allocations quickly.  Retiree "Sequence of Returns Risk" will add to selling pressure in the US market.</li>
</ul>


The initial target range for the S&amp;P in the US bear market is 4800 to 5000. This level also coincides with the technical level of -20% from the top.
The stock market and economy in the US are highly co-dependent, and the bear market will cause consumption to fall more than in previous market downturns.
Foreign investors have started to reduce their overweight US allocations quickly.  Retiree "Sequence of Returns Risk" will add to selling pressure in the US market.


Equity Bottom-Up

First Pacific Company Limited is an investment holding company with operations located in Asia-Pacific. The Company principally invests in consumer food products, infrastructure, natural resources, and telecommunications.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Budweiser Brewing  APAC  / Equity Bottom-Up

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited is a company principally engaged in the brewing and distribution of beer. The Company produces, imports, markets, distributes over 50 brands including Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona, Hoegaarden, Cass, and Harbin. The principal markets include China, South Korea, India and Vietnam.

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong secular bull market has consolidated within its long-term support/resistance range of 22700 and 24000.  With increasing momentum and strength the market is poised for the next leg up.</li>
<li>Hong Kong tech and consumer discretionary sectors continue to have strong momentum with healthcare and materials sectors showing renewed strength.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> shares bounce with the appointment of new CEO, pointing to increasing China revenue.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> reported strong earnings and increased its dividend.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong secular bull market has consolidated within its long-term support/resistance range of 22700 and 24000.  With increasing momentum and strength the market is poised for the next leg up.
Hong Kong tech and consumer discretionary sectors continue to have strong momentum with healthcare and materials sectors showing renewed strength.

Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) shares bounce with the appointment of new CEO, pointing to increasing China revenue.  Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) reported strong earnings and increased its dividend.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (March 11)

Asian Hedge Fund manager based in HK/SG with over 20 years of experience managing Asian Long/Short Equity funds. Macroeconomic top-down analysis generates thematic investments that are further researched from the bottom-up. Research is supplemented with advanced technical analysis. 
Previous experience includes M&A with Morgan Stanley and CPA with Deloitte in NYC. Wharton MBA.

David Mudd
Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

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