Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels.</li><li>The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir.</li><li>The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing.</li></ul>

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels.The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir.The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing.

Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.</li>
<li>Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.</li>
<li>Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.</li>
</ul>


Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have completed the quarterly re-estimation of our prepayment model, which now includes data from the April refinancing window.</li><li>The April window was characterized by moderate refinancing activity, generally in line with the estimates from the prepayment model.</li><li>In the month leading up to the prepayment deadline (January), mortgage bond prices remained relatively stable.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We have completed the quarterly re-estimation of our prepayment model, which now includes data from the April refinancing window.The April window was characterized by moderate refinancing activity, generally in line with the estimates from the prepayment model.In the month leading up to the prepayment deadline (January), mortgage bond prices remained relatively stable.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly re-estimation of Nordea’s prepayment model

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul>
<li>A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts </li>
<li>Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)</li>
<li>Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  </li>
</ul>


A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  


Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<ul>
<li>President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.</li>
<li>One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year</li>
<li>We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.</li>
</ul>


President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.


Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession

Denmark
Insights on Denmark

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 11/04/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is...

Auctus Advisors

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Quarterly re-estimation of Nordea’s prepayment model

We have completed the quarterly re-estimation of our prepayment model, which now includes data from the April refinancing window.

Nordea

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 11/04/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is...

Auctus Advisors

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

​Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Quarterly re-estimation of Nordea’s prepayment model

We have completed the quarterly re-estimation of our prepayment model, which now includes data from the April refinancing window.

Nordea

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

​President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...