Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.</li><li>We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.</li><li>The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.

EM Watch – No fiscal stimulus from China as long as export-business is thriving!

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.</li>
<li>Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.</li>
<li>Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.</li>
</ul>


The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.
Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.
Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.


Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

<ul>
<li>In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.</li>
<li>We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.</li>
<li>Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.</li>
</ul>


In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.
We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.
Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.


Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>China’s latest consumer data will do little to convince the leadership to significantly step stimulus in the upcoming Third Plenum as support for advanced sectors remains key.</li>
<li>Beijing's refraining from significant stimulus is deemed a feature, rather than a bug. Policymakers do not yet view the trade-offs as unmanageable. </li>
<li>While some incremental step-up in policy support may be on the cards, do not expect Beijing to rock the boat beyond that. </li>
</ul>


China’s latest consumer data will do little to convince the leadership to significantly step stimulus in the upcoming Third Plenum as support for advanced sectors remains key.
Beijing's refraining from significant stimulus is deemed a feature, rather than a bug. Policymakers do not yet view the trade-offs as unmanageable. 
While some incremental step-up in policy support may be on the cards, do not expect Beijing to rock the boat beyond that. 


China Economics: Expect Few Changes in Third Plenum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>US facing headwinds with the latest Beige Book indicating a dimmer outlook, while China’s stimulus brings new hope of growth revival.</li><li>Subdued corporate tax driven by moderating commodity prices last year, would lead to tight fiscal space. SAL usage should provide support.</li><li>The Tapera Fund will affect consumption in the ST but provide a larger safety net in the LT and will supporting safer investment assets.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

US facing headwinds with the latest Beige Book indicating a dimmer outlook, while China’s stimulus brings new hope of growth revival.Subdued corporate tax driven by moderating commodity prices last year, would lead to tight fiscal space. SAL usage should provide support.The Tapera Fund will affect consumption in the ST but provide a larger safety net in the LT and will supporting safer investment assets.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The Headwinds And Tailwinds