HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tobacco International (HK) / Equity Bottom-Up

China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited engages in tobacco international trading business. The Company provides tobacco leaf products import and export, cigarettes export, new tobacco products export, and other services. China Tobacco International (HK) serves customers primarily from China and Southeast Asia.

China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK)

<ul>
<li>Management of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tobacco-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27859:1" rel="noopener">China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK)</a> is bullish on earnings in the next two years, with tobacco leaf import and cigarette export being the key drivers.</li>
<li>Elevated tobacco leaf price is positive to CTI while more re-opening of duty-free shops (currently only 50% of pre-COVID level) will add to revenue momentum.</li>
<li>A light gearing of just 2% and potentially more parent asset injection are CTI's strengths. The company plans to maintain a steady uptrend on absolute DPS annually. </li>
</ul>


Management of China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK) is bullish on earnings in the next two years, with tobacco leaf import and cigarette export being the key drivers.
Elevated tobacco leaf price is positive to CTI while more re-opening of duty-free shops (currently only 50% of pre-COVID level) will add to revenue momentum.
A light gearing of just 2% and potentially more parent asset injection are CTI's strengths. The company plans to maintain a steady uptrend on absolute DPS annually. 


China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation

AviChina Industry & Technology H / Equity Bottom-Up

AviChina Industry & Technology Co Ltd manufactures and sells aviation tools and aero-parts. The Company's main products include helicopters, regional aircrafts, trainers, general aircrafts, aero-parts and components and aero-electrical products.

AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK)

<ul>
<li>Given its holdings in four A-share subsidiaries, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> will benefit from the surge in their share prices as mainland markets re-open.</li>
<li>These A-share all lagged benchmark Indices YTD. Avichina's holdings in them are already valued at 2.23x its own market capitalisation. </li>
<li>The historical discount range is 51-70% and currently stands at 55%, suggesting AviChina's share price has not yet excessively priced in the post-Golden Week rally.</li>
</ul>


Given its holdings in four A-share subsidiaries, AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) will benefit from the surge in their share prices as mainland markets re-open.
These A-share all lagged benchmark Indices YTD. Avichina's holdings in them are already valued at 2.23x its own market capitalisation. 
The historical discount range is 51-70% and currently stands at 55%, suggesting AviChina's share price has not yet excessively priced in the post-Golden Week rally.


AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>LKNCY US: Luckin Coffee Opens Its 20,000th Store . (+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK:July holiday saw normal seasonliaty in EV sales, Xiaomi ramp up nicely（///////）</li>
<li>XPEV US: Details of new refreshed Xpeng sedan P7 revealed (+)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY US: Luckin Coffee Opens Its 20,000th Store . (+)
1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK:July holiday saw normal seasonliaty in EV sales, Xiaomi ramp up nicely（///////）
XPEV US: Details of new refreshed Xpeng sedan P7 revealed (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

<ul>
<li>Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. </li>
<li>Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS</li>
</ul>


Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. 
Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run
We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

<ul>
<li>We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...</li>
<li>We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.</li>
</ul>


We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of...
We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;
We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.


[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

Opportunities and Impact of China's Reopening

China Reopening
Opportunities and Impact of China's Reopening

China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation

CTI is optimistic about future earnings, citing tobacco leaf import and cigarette export as key drivers. Rising tobacco leaf import revenue and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK

Luckin Coffee celebrates milestone with 20,000th store opening, EV sales remain steady during July holiday, Xpeng unveils details of new sedan...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation

CTI is optimistic about future earnings, citing tobacco leaf import and cigarette export as key drivers. Rising tobacco leaf import revenue and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge

​AviChina is poised to benefit from a surge in A-share subsidiaries' share prices as mainland markets re-open, with the attributable value of its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/1211 HK/MNSO US/3690 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/700 HK

​Luckin Coffee celebrates milestone with 20,000th store opening, EV sales remain steady during July holiday, Xpeng unveils details of new sedan...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

​Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

​Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

AviChina is poised to benefit from a surge in A-share subsidiaries' share prices as mainland markets re-open, with the attributable value of its...

Luckin Coffee celebrates milestone with 20,000th store opening, EV sales remain steady during July holiday, Xpeng unveils details of new sedan...

Miniso reports strong revenue and non-GAAP net income, guided for soft operating margin due to new store openings. Stock maintained as BUY with TP...

Miniso's Investor Day highlighted their growth strategy of connecting with Chinese supply chain for fast turnaround. Expect higher revenue and non...