Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C3Q24 revenue/non-IFRS operating profit 2%/12% above consensus, thanks to rising monetization and cost reduction. C4Q24 guidance, however, missed expectation due to low ASP mix and expansion;</li>
<li>We see the following as positive catalysts: (1) consumption stimulus in 2025 that will likely include service coupons, (2) market share gains, (3) overseas expansion in Mid-East bearing quick fruits.</li>
<li>We therefore opt to keep Meituan on our TOP BUY list and maintain TP at HK$165.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C3Q24 revenue/non-IFRS operating profit 2%/12% above consensus, thanks to rising monetization and cost reduction. C4Q24 guidance, however, missed expectation due to low ASP mix and expansion;
We see the following as positive catalysts: (1) consumption stimulus in 2025 that will likely include service coupons, (2) market share gains, (3) overseas expansion in Mid-East bearing quick fruits.
We therefore opt to keep Meituan on our TOP BUY list and maintain TP at HK$165.


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$165) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Buy or Leave?

Head of Content, Data & Research, Helixtap

Arusha Das

Head of Content, Data & Research

Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

Commodities

SGX Technically Specified Rubber 20 (TSR20) Futures: Effective from 16th May 2011, this contract will be migrated from SICOM platform to the SGX-DT platform. It will cease trading on SICOM at the close of business day Friday, 13th May 2011. Trading hours are revised as 7.55am to 6.00pm (no lunch break). Please refer to SGX products website for the new revised contract specifications. Exchange symbol: TF. Product Specifications: https://www2.sgx.com/derivatives/products/sicom-rubber?cc=TF

<ul><li>Inventory lowest in 13th months</li><li>Arbitrage widens for African and Indonesian rubber</li><li>Frontloading resulted in spike in exports</li></ul>

Inventory lowest in 13th monthsArbitrage widens for African and Indonesian rubberFrontloading resulted in spike in exports

Helixtap China Report: Declining Inventory Could Help Revive Demand

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Tencent Music Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Tencent Music Entertainment operates an online music entertainment platform in China. The Company offers platform that comprises of online music, recording, music-centric live streaming enabling users to discover, listen, sing, watch, perform, and socialize music.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crrc-corp-ltd-461535b2-37ac-4589-b4d9-8b71c06c43b8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:124:1" rel="noopener">CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK)</a> gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.

CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK) gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC) operates as an international investment bank. The Company provides financial services, including investment banking, capital markets, securities sales and trading, fixed income, asset management, and private equity. China International Capital also offers individual wealth management and research services.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.</li>
<li>Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). </li>
<li>Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. SOUTHBOUND volumes bounced, and net buying was both large and broad-based.
Stocks in HK and mainland markets fell heavily with HK's main indices down 6-7% and China's blue chip indices down 3.3-3.6% (CSI 500 - 4.8%). 
Within H/A Pairs, after outperforming the HK/mainland spread for weeks, spreads got shellacked. Worst week in a long time (-3.7%), perhaps on the back of "disappointing" lack of stimulus measures.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

Andy Fu, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week, China's RmbB12tn debt swap plan fall short of investors' expectations. The pattern of trying to control the release of stimulus and manage the expectations is obvious;</li>
<li>We notice that the government has injected more-than-required liquidity to the bank system. Such magnitude can only be explained by preparation for a long, drawn-out war; </li>
<li>MOF's injection to banks to beef up capital adequacy ratio likely indicates the amount of stimulus that is about to happen to reflate the balance sheets of the local governments.</li>
</ul>


Last week, China's RmbB12tn debt swap plan fall short of investors' expectations. The pattern of trying to control the release of stimulus and manage the expectations is obvious;
We notice that the government has injected more-than-required liquidity to the bank system. Such magnitude can only be explained by preparation for a long, drawn-out war; 
MOF's injection to banks to beef up capital adequacy ratio likely indicates the amount of stimulus that is about to happen to reflate the balance sheets of the local governments.


China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

China Stimulus
Insights on China's Economic Stimulus

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$165) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Buy or Leave?

Meituan beats revenue/profit expectations in C3Q24 but misses guidance in C4Q24. Positive catalysts include consumption stimulus, market share...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Helixtap China Report: Declining Inventory Could Help Revive Demand

The Chinese rubber market is encountering difficulties stemming from slow economic growth, insufficient stimulus measures, and the forthcoming...

Helixtap

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

H/A Pairs got hurt badly this week - on average liquid Hs underperformed their As by 3.7% - as HK and China markets fell sharply after stimulus was...

Travis Lundy

China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$165) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Buy or Leave?

​Meituan beats revenue/profit expectations in C3Q24 but misses guidance in C4Q24. Positive catalysts include consumption stimulus, market share...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Helixtap China Report: Declining Inventory Could Help Revive Demand

The Chinese rubber market is encountering difficulties stemming from slow economic growth, insufficient stimulus measures, and the forthcoming...

Helixtap

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Nov 2024): AH Premia Rise Sharply; Hs Shellacked Vs As In Most Sectors

H/A Pairs got hurt badly this week - on average liquid Hs underperformed their As by 3.7% - as HK and China markets fell sharply after stimulus was...

Travis Lundy

China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

​China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan beats revenue/profit expectations in C3Q24 but misses guidance in C4Q24. Positive catalysts include consumption stimulus, market share...

China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...