Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>July CPI up 0.5% y/y vs June +0.2%, PPI -0.8% y/y vs June -0.8%.</li>
<li>CPI uptick comes as Beijing boosts support for weak consumer sector, but core CPI still weaker than previous month.</li>
<li>Overall data outcome such as weak CPI, strain on exports, and soft domestic demand backs expectations for more stimulus.</li>
</ul>


July CPI up 0.5% y/y vs June +0.2%, PPI -0.8% y/y vs June -0.8%.
CPI uptick comes as Beijing boosts support for weak consumer sector, but core CPI still weaker than previous month.
Overall data outcome such as weak CPI, strain on exports, and soft domestic demand backs expectations for more stimulus.


China: CPI Still Weak for July and Forecast of Upcoming Government Measures

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

<ul>
<li>Market underestimates the size of China’s stimulus packages, which consist of Rmb150bn of EV trade-in’s by year end and Rmb3tn worth of industrial equipment upgrades over 5 years;</li>
<li>Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei in marketing share shall continue, profitably. Our TOP PICK is BYD.</li>
<li>Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei in marketing share shall continue, profitably. Our TOP PICK is BYD.</li>
</ul>


Market underestimates the size of China’s stimulus packages, which consist of Rmb150bn of EV trade-in’s by year end and Rmb3tn worth of industrial equipment upgrades over 5 years;
Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei in marketing share shall continue, profitably. Our TOP PICK is BYD.
Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei in marketing share shall continue, profitably. Our TOP PICK is BYD.


[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei Continue

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.</li><li>We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.</li><li>The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM watch, which typically centers around developments in Asia and Latin America.We continue to see signs of Chinese efforts to balance global metals markets by exporting local excesses, while the export-sector driven growth in China limits the probability of major local fiscal stimulus to fuel domestic consumption.The softening of the USD side of the equation will likely leave local monetary authorities in a wait-and-see mode despite continued weakness in both CNY and JPY.

EM Watch – No fiscal stimulus from China as long as export-business is thriving!

<ul>
<li>The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.</li>
<li>Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.</li>
<li>Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.</li>
</ul>


The 3 plenum July 15-18 will likely see some additional measures that will support or stimulate China economy.  However, they are unlikely to be game changers.
Major points to observe include unemployment and healthcare benefit boost, Hukou fine tuning, discussion about inheritance tax, and the 2-4 trillion Yuan of buying most unsold homes.
Deepening of reform especially in boosting innovation and upgrading consumption will also be touched on, but there will seem no short-term effective measures.


Preview to the 3rd Plenum of Chinese Communist Party

<ul>
<li>In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.</li>
<li>We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.</li>
<li>Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.</li>
</ul>


In a recent forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is confident that Chinese economy was stagnant simply because of COVID. Now that COVID has gone, Chinese economy will eventually heal itself.
We believe rather Chinese economy will still be bumpy after COVID, with three major arrows against Chinese Economy, namely property sector slump, local government debt, and weak private sector.
Instead of the "self recovery" view of the economy proposed by Li, we believe government should more actively roll out fiscal and monetary stimulus.


Response to Premier Li: Post COVID Chinese Economy