Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Department of Defense has designated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as a Chinese Military Company. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd-69366efb-cf6b-404d-a0e4-c6b9b2e128dc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)</a> shares were down nearly 8% overnight.</li>
<li>There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.</li>
<li>If added to the NS-CMIC list, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Department of Defense has designated Tencent (700 HK) as a Chinese Military Company. Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) shares were down nearly 8% overnight.
There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.
If added to the NS-CMIC list, Tencent (700 HK) will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.


Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CaoCao Inc (CaoCao) is a ride-hailing firm incubated by the Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (Geely).

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the firm's past performance.</li>
</ul>



CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
In this note, we look at the firm's past performance.


CaoCao Pre-IPO: Scaling up but a Cash Infusion Is Required

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Equity Bottom-Up

Greatview Aseptic Packaging Company Limited is an integrated provider of aseptic packaging and related services. The Company also provides customers with a range of support services with respect to standard roll-fed filling machines, which include training and on-site technical assistance, as well as spare parts.

<ul>
<li>All Pre-Conditions of Newjf’s Offer have been satisfied. Based on Offer Document, the latest date for posting of the Response Document is Jan.7, 2025. First Closing Date is Jan.21, 2025.</li>
<li>Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition and regain the control of international business so as to protect shareholders’ interests.So, the logic behind the deal is very solid.</li>
<li>Mengniu's attitude could be positive. A higher management offer seems more out of reach because the management lacks sincerity. We advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.</li>
</ul>


All Pre-Conditions of Newjf’s Offer have been satisfied. Based on Offer Document, the latest date for posting of the Response Document is Jan.7, 2025. First Closing Date is Jan.21, 2025.
Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition and regain the control of international business so as to protect shareholders’ interests.So, the logic behind the deal is very solid.
Mengniu's attitude could be positive. A higher management offer seems more out of reach because the management lacks sincerity. We advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.


Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update - Newjf’s Offer Should Be Prioritized

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Without the buyback, it’s difficult to obtain reasonable market pricing by simply transferring the equity of Fosun Tourism or the equity of core assets, which is detrimental to Fosun Group.  </li>
<li>To maximize returns, a wiser approach is to privatize Fosun Tourism first, then at a higher valuation level to spin off, sell, relist, attract strategic investment to “rationalize” the valuation.</li>
<li>Heavy assets of Taicang/Lijiang projects would be sold. For core assets Club Med/Atlantis, the future plans could be different. It's necessary to take a look at the Share Alternative Option.</li>
</ul>


Without the buyback, it’s difficult to obtain reasonable market pricing by simply transferring the equity of Fosun Tourism or the equity of core assets, which is detrimental to Fosun Group.  
To maximize returns, a wiser approach is to privatize Fosun Tourism first, then at a higher valuation level to spin off, sell, relist, attract strategic investment to “rationalize” the valuation.
Heavy assets of Taicang/Lijiang projects would be sold. For core assets Club Med/Atlantis, the future plans could be different. It's necessary to take a look at the Share Alternative Option.


Fosun Tourism (1992.HK) - The Logic Behind the Share Buyback and the Outlook

Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Although data interpolation has a long history, the various linear and nonlinear techniques have pros and cons         </li>
<li>I introduce a hybrid technique to interpolate monthly US inflation-adjusted GDP going back to 1947</li>
<li>My monthly GDP nowcast through November seems consistent with some growth moderation on a three-month and six-month basis   </li>
</ul>


Although data interpolation has a long history, the various linear and nonlinear techniques have pros and cons         
I introduce a hybrid technique to interpolate monthly US inflation-adjusted GDP going back to 1947
My monthly GDP nowcast through November seems consistent with some growth moderation on a three-month and six-month basis   


China Largecap
Research on China largecaps

Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet

The U.S. DoD has designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company. The stock is not on the NS-CMIC list yet and could be added later. Addition to...

Brian Freitas

CaoCao Pre-IPO: Scaling up but a Cash Infusion Is Required

CaoCao (CC) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It is a ride hailing platform in China. In this note, we look at the...

Nicholas Tan

Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update - Newjf’s Offer Should Be Prioritized

IFA unsurprisingly recommended to reject Newjf's Offer. But as the conflict is public, shareholder will make decision that benefit them most....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Another Way to Skin a Cat?

I introduce a new interpolated monthly US real GDP series extending back to 1947, thus offering an alternative nowcast of current economic activity.

Thomas Lam

Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet

The U.S. DoD has designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company. The stock is not on the NS-CMIC list yet and could be added later. Addition to...

Brian Freitas

CaoCao Pre-IPO: Scaling up but a Cash Infusion Is Required

CaoCao (CC) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It is a ride hailing platform in China. In this note, we look at the...

Nicholas Tan

Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update - Newjf’s Offer Should Be Prioritized

IFA unsurprisingly recommended to reject Newjf's Offer. But as the conflict is public, shareholder will make decision that benefit them most....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun Tourism (1992.HK) - The Logic Behind the Share Buyback and the Outlook

​To maximize returns, privatize Fosun Tourism first help obtain higher valuation.Heavy assets would be sold, while future plans for Club Med...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Another Way to Skin a Cat?

I introduce a new interpolated monthly US real GDP series extending back to 1947, thus offering an alternative nowcast of current economic activity.

Thomas Lam

To maximize returns, privatize Fosun Tourism first help obtain higher valuation.Heavy assets would be sold, while future plans for Club Med...