Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Is the Unemployment Rate Drifting Higher or Lower?

Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

The Eventual Shift in Fed Policy: When & By How Much?

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The upward spike in Treasury yields, particularly at the longer-end, has introduced market anxieties lately</li>
<li>But the recent jump in the 10-year yield, unlike earlier periods, seems to be influenced by the unobserved term premium component</li>
<li>I introduce my long-maturity term premium estimate, attempt to tease out statistical relationships and conjecture on the potential rate path</li>
</ul>


The upward spike in Treasury yields, particularly at the longer-end, has introduced market anxieties lately
But the recent jump in the 10-year yield, unlike earlier periods, seems to be influenced by the unobserved term premium component
I introduce my long-maturity term premium estimate, attempt to tease out statistical relationships and conjecture on the potential rate path


The Hoo-Ha in the Bond Market