Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. </li>
<li>Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.</li>
<li>Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.</li>
</ul>


Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. 
Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.
Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A Comprehensive Guide to Building AI-Powered Investment Systems: The application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in quantitative finance, focusing on the current state of LLM technology in financial applications </li>
<li>I also cover: 1. Comparative analysis of leading models                2. Implementation frameworks for production systems 3. Risk management and quality control considerations </li>
<li>Key Findings: 1. Multi-model approaches outperform single-model solutions 2. Production implementation requires robust quality controls 3. Model selection should be task-specific within the investment process </li>
</ul>


A Comprehensive Guide to Building AI-Powered Investment Systems: The application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in quantitative finance, focusing on the current state of LLM technology in financial applications 
I also cover: 1. Comparative analysis of leading models                2. Implementation frameworks for production systems 3. Risk management and quality control considerations 
Key Findings: 1. Multi-model approaches outperform single-model solutions 2. Production implementation requires robust quality controls 3. Model selection should be task-specific within the investment process 


The LLM Quant Revolution: From ChatGPT to Wall Street

Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Contrary to popular belief, the upward trend in global US$ exports, which has been in place since 1948 remains intact. World trade openness too is higher today than pre-GFC.  </li>
<li>US consumers are the richest. However Asian affordability is growing quickly . The region’s share of the global imports is already on par with Europe’s.   </li>
<li>Globalisation is not reversing but evolving. Regional trade is driving world exports while world manufacturing production chains are transitioning from horizontal to vertical integrated.</li>
</ul>


Contrary to popular belief, the upward trend in global US$ exports, which has been in place since 1948 remains intact. World trade openness too is higher today than pre-GFC.  
US consumers are the richest. However Asian affordability is growing quickly . The region’s share of the global imports is already on par with Europe’s.   
Globalisation is not reversing but evolving. Regional trade is driving world exports while world manufacturing production chains are transitioning from horizontal to vertical integrated.


Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Forensic Accounting

Macy's, Inc. operates department stores in the United States.  The Company also operates direct mail catalog and electronic commerce subsidiaries. Macy's retail stores sell a wide range of merchandise, including men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods.

<ul>
<li>Department store chain delayed 3Q earnings report, pending investigation into accounting discrepancies</li>
<li>Investigation scheduled to end by Dec. 11. Discrepancies involved the incorrect recording of small package delivery expenses.</li>
<li>Transparently's AI-powered system highlighted several red flags that align with this manipulation. The system could have warned Macy’s board and investors there were problems afoot. </li>
</ul>


Department store chain delayed 3Q earnings report, pending investigation into accounting discrepancies
Investigation scheduled to end by Dec. 11. Discrepancies involved the incorrect recording of small package delivery expenses.
Transparently's AI-powered system highlighted several red flags that align with this manipulation. The system could have warned Macy’s board and investors there were problems afoot. 


Unpacking Macy's (M) Accounting Problems With AI

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

<ul>
<li>Reportedly, Ito Junro's MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks.  Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.</li>
<li>Starwood/Warburg Pincus' firm Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> secures support from 30.79% of the register.</li>
<li>We may be wrong on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly, Ito Junro's MBO for Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks.  Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.
Starwood/Warburg Pincus' firm Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) secures support from 30.79% of the register.
We may be wrong on Sanrio (8136 JP) by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN

Smorgasbord of free to read Insights on Smartkarma

Unpaywalled Insights
Smorgasbord of free to read Insights on Smartkarma

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.

Mint Finance

The LLM Quant Revolution: From ChatGPT to Wall Street

Learn how to build AI-powered investment systems using Large Language Models, including comparative analysis, implementation frameworks, and key...

William Mann

Globalisation: Same, Same but Different

Contrary to popular belief, the upward trend in global US$ exports, which has been in place since 1948 remains intact. World trade openness too is...

Sharmila Whelan

Unpacking Macy's (M) Accounting Problems With AI

Department store chain Macy's delays 3Q earnings report due to accounting discrepancies involving small package delivery expenses, Transparently's...

Mark Jolley

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

​SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.

Mint Finance

The LLM Quant Revolution: From ChatGPT to Wall Street

​Learn how to build AI-powered investment systems using Large Language Models, including comparative analysis, implementation frameworks, and key...

William Mann

Globalisation: Same, Same but Different

Contrary to popular belief, the upward trend in global US$ exports, which has been in place since 1948 remains intact. World trade openness too is...

Sharmila Whelan

Unpacking Macy's (M) Accounting Problems With AI

​Department store chain Macy's delays 3Q earnings report due to accounting discrepancies involving small package delivery expenses, Transparently's...

Mark Jolley

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.

Learn how to build AI-powered investment systems using Large Language Models, including comparative analysis, implementation frameworks, and key...

Department store chain Macy's delays 3Q earnings report due to accounting discrepancies involving small package delivery expenses, Transparently's...