Partner at Exencial Research, Exencial Research

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Partner at Exencial Research

Exencial Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Net FDI inflows hit USD 3.7B in Jan '25, up from USD 2.3B, matching Aug '24 after months of decline.</li>
<li>FDI outflows dropped to USD 2.1B, lowest since Jun '22, driving the rebound despite lower gross inflows.</li>
<li>Apr-Jan '24-25 net FDI fell 7.4% to USD 21.6B; tech and manufacturing led, per RBI and UNCTAD reports.</li>
</ul>


Net FDI inflows hit USD 3.7B in Jan '25, up from USD 2.3B, matching Aug '24 after months of decline.
FDI outflows dropped to USD 2.1B, lowest since Jun '22, driving the rebound despite lower gross inflows.
Apr-Jan '24-25 net FDI fell 7.4% to USD 21.6B; tech and manufacturing led, per RBI and UNCTAD reports.


India's FDI Soars in '25: In Up, Out Down!

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan is sending a delegation of top trade negotiators to the U.S, but both sides are making the same mistakes that led to WWII.</li>
<li>I asked Grok to use game theory to map out the most likely scenarios for how Japanese and U.S. governments might avoid the worst-case scenario. </li>
<li>According to Grok, both sides have a strong motivation to delay any agreement no matter what the other side offers.</li>
</ul>


Japan is sending a delegation of top trade negotiators to the U.S, but both sides are making the same mistakes that led to WWII.
I asked Grok to use game theory to map out the most likely scenarios for how Japanese and U.S. governments might avoid the worst-case scenario. 
According to Grok, both sides have a strong motivation to delay any agreement no matter what the other side offers.


Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy, Edelscourt

Albert Maass

Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy

Edelscourt

Established in 2014, Edelscourt combines cutting-edge technology with deep industry knowledge. We specialise in risk management solutions for a diverse range of clients, from financial institutions to family offices.

<ul>
<li>Energy and Utilities sectors positioned for outperformance due to capital discipline, attractive valuations, and stable cash flows.</li>
<li>Electrification and energy security create structural demand tailwinds, particularly benefiting regulated utility companies.</li>
<li>As markets favor yield and quality over growth, these sectors offer income potential in a normalizing interest rate environment.</li>
</ul>


Energy and Utilities sectors positioned for outperformance due to capital discipline, attractive valuations, and stable cash flows.
Electrification and energy security create structural demand tailwinds, particularly benefiting regulated utility companies.
As markets favor yield and quality over growth, these sectors offer income potential in a normalizing interest rate environment.


Power Plays: Why Energy and Utilities Are the Strategic Winners of the Next Decade

Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.</li>
<li>Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.</li>
<li>Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.</li>
</ul>


Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.


HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul>
<li>A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts </li>
<li>Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)</li>
<li>Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  </li>
</ul>


A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  


Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

Smorgasbord of free to read Insights on Smartkarma

Unpaywalled Insights
Smorgasbord of free to read Insights on Smartkarma

India's FDI Soars in '25: In Up, Out Down!

Net FDI inflows in India rebounded in January 2025, reaching USD 3.7B, while FDI outflows decreased to USD 2.1B, driving the increase despite...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Will Japan's Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?

Japan's top trade negotiators are on their way to Washington, but both sides are at risk of repeating WWII mistakes. I asked Grok to use game...

Michael Allen

Power Plays: Why Energy and Utilities Are the Strategic Winners of the Next Decade

Energy and Utilities sectors offer income potential and stable cash flows, benefiting from capital discipline and structural demand tailwinds.

Albert Maass

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

India's FDI Soars in '25: In Up, Out Down!

​Net FDI inflows in India rebounded in January 2025, reaching USD 3.7B, while FDI outflows decreased to USD 2.1B, driving the increase despite...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Will Japan's Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?

​Japan's top trade negotiators are on their way to Washington, but both sides are at risk of repeating WWII mistakes. I asked Grok to use game...

Michael Allen

Power Plays: Why Energy and Utilities Are the Strategic Winners of the Next Decade

​Energy and Utilities sectors offer income potential and stable cash flows, benefiting from capital discipline and structural demand tailwinds.

Albert Maass

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

​Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Net FDI inflows in India rebounded in January 2025, reaching USD 3.7B, while FDI outflows decreased to USD 2.1B, driving the increase despite...

Japan's top trade negotiators are on their way to Washington, but both sides are at risk of repeating WWII mistakes. I asked Grok to use game...

Energy and Utilities sectors offer income potential and stable cash flows, benefiting from capital discipline and structural demand tailwinds.

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...