Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. operates a used automobile business. Its main line of business is retail of used domestic cars but it also sells imported cars and SUV/vans. In addition, the company also operates an automobile maintenace business.

<ul>
<li>NextAge's stock price dropped nearly 8% on December 5, when the Topix was up, with no apparent news on either the company's website or any local media.</li>
<li>The next day, the Nikkei reported that the Financial Services Agency had raided the company's office after confirming that insurance schemes had been deployed to defraud customers. </li>
<li>This sounds like an old story being leaked by rivals, so we called the company and confirmed: This is most likely old news. </li>
</ul>


NextAge's stock price dropped nearly 8% on December 5, when the Topix was up, with no apparent news on either the company's website or any local media.
The next day, the Nikkei reported that the Financial Services Agency had raided the company's office after confirming that insurance schemes had been deployed to defraud customers. 
This sounds like an old story being leaked by rivals, so we called the company and confirmed: This is most likely old news. 


Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

<ul>
<li>7&amp;I traded at less than 5x reported EV/EBITDA consistently for roughly 4 years straight, and no one seemed to care or notice.</li>
<li>Now that it trades close to 9x, there is an overflow of eager financiers and a mile-long line of analysts who will tell you that it is still undervalued.</li>
<li>This is the stock market equivalent of duct tape and a banana.</li>
</ul>


7&amp;I traded at less than 5x reported EV/EBITDA consistently for roughly 4 years straight, and no one seemed to care or notice.
Now that it trades close to 9x, there is an overflow of eager financiers and a mile-long line of analysts who will tell you that it is still undervalued.
This is the stock market equivalent of duct tape and a banana.


Seven&I (3382): Who Will Be the Greater Fool?

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

17LIVE Group Limited operates as a live streaming company. The Company offers pure-play live-streaming platform that streams real-time user-generated videos, as well as allows streamers to interact with their audience live via live chat or games, creating high-quality content. 17LIVE Group serves customers in Asia.

<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome 17Live’s Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, Jiang Honghui. </p>
<p>In the upcoming webinar, Honghui will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with the Smartkarma moderator. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&amp;A session.</p>
<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 25 November 2024, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=81735174473" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
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<h3>About 17Live Group</h3>
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<p>17LIVE is a leading pure-play live streaming platform in Asia with key markets in Japan and Taiwan. Its business lines include Liver live streaming, V-Liver live streaming and other businesses such as in-app games and live commerce. 17LIVE is accessible globally and has fostered a diverse live streaming ecosystem with a loyal and engaged user community, as well as a deep pool of live streamers.</p>
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For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome 17Live’s Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, Jiang Honghui. 
In the upcoming webinar, Honghui will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with the Smartkarma moderator. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&amp;A session.
The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 25 November 2024, 17:00 SGT/HKT.



























Register for the Webinar here



























About 17Live Group

17LIVE is a leading pure-play live streaming platform in Asia with key markets in Japan and Taiwan. Its business lines include Liver live streaming, V-Liver live streaming and other businesses such as in-app games and live commerce. 17LIVE is accessible globally and has fostered a diverse live streaming ecosystem with a loyal and engaged user community, as well as a deep pool of live streamers.


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | 17LIVE Group: Leading Pure-Play Live Streaming Platform in Asia

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Prada S.p.A. is an Italian fashion company that designs, manufactures, promotes and sells high-end leather goods, ready-to-wear and footwear through various brands.

<ul><li><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a> (1913 HK —US$18 billion) is a strange beast.</p></li><li><p>It’s an Italian fashion group listed in Hong Kong, of all places. Many European and American investors ignore the name, which has caused Prada to trade at a considerable discount to its peers.</p></li><li><p>The first Prada shop was opened in 1913 by Mario Prada, a former leather goods salesman who imported English handbags and travel accessories and sold them to the Italian elite.</p></li></ul>

Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK) (1913 HK —US$18 billion) is a strange beast.It’s an Italian fashion group listed in Hong Kong, of all places. Many European and American investors ignore the name, which has caused Prada to trade at a considerable discount to its peers.The first Prada shop was opened in 1913 by Mario Prada, a former leather goods salesman who imported English handbags and travel accessories and sold them to the Italian elite.

Prada (1913 HK): High Fashion at 14x EV/Pretax Profit with an Alt-Data Catalyst

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Tuya Inc., doing business as Tuya Smart, provides IoT cloud platform. The Company offers solutions which enables brands, retailers, OEMs, and manufacturers to develop, launch, manage, and monetize software-enabled devices and services. Tuya Smart serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;</li>
<li>TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;</li>
<li>TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.</li>
</ul>


On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;
TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;
TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.


TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Unpaywalled Equity-Bottom-Up
Unpaywalled Equity-Bottom-Up Insights

NextAge (3186): Here We Go Again?

NextAge's stock price dropped 8% with no apparent news, but later the Nikkei reported that the Financial Services Agency raided their office for...

Michael Allen

Seven&I (3382): Who Will Be the Greater Fool?

7&I traded at a low valuation for years, but now that it's higher, analysts claim it's still undervalued - this is the stock market equivalent of...

Michael Allen

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | 17LIVE Group: Leading Pure-Play Live Streaming Platform in Asia

17LIVE (17LIVE SP) is a leading pure-play live streaming platform in Asia with key markets in Japan and Taiwan. Learn more about the company's...

Smartkarma Research

Prada (1913 HK): High Fashion at 14x EV/Pretax Profit with an Alt-Data Catalyst

Prada (1913 HK —US$18 billion) is a strange beast. It’s an Italian fashion group listed in Hong Kong, of all places. Many European and American...

Asian Century Stocks

TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Temasek bought 13% of TUYA and planned to list on SGX. We believe TUYA's valuation is high and the company's business model, customer segment and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NextAge (3186): Here We Go Again?

​NextAge's stock price dropped 8% with no apparent news, but later the Nikkei reported that the Financial Services Agency raided their office for...

Michael Allen

Seven&I (3382): Who Will Be the Greater Fool?

​7&I traded at a low valuation for years, but now that it's higher, analysts claim it's still undervalued - this is the stock market equivalent of...

Michael Allen

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | 17LIVE Group: Leading Pure-Play Live Streaming Platform in Asia

17LIVE (17LIVE SP) is a leading pure-play live streaming platform in Asia with key markets in Japan and Taiwan. Learn more about the company's...

Smartkarma Research

Prada (1913 HK): High Fashion at 14x EV/Pretax Profit with an Alt-Data Catalyst

Prada (1913 HK —US$18 billion) is a strange beast. It’s an Italian fashion group listed in Hong Kong, of all places. Many European and American...

Asian Century Stocks

TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Temasek bought 13% of TUYA and planned to list on SGX. We believe TUYA's valuation is high and the company's business model, customer segment and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NextAge's stock price dropped 8% with no apparent news, but later the Nikkei reported that the Financial Services Agency raided their office for...

7&I traded at a low valuation for years, but now that it's higher, analysts claim it's still undervalued - this is the stock market equivalent of...