Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a 44% beat at the EPS level. VEON continues to aggressively expand its digital solutions businesses, which grew 63% in 2024 as it executes its strategy to become ‘a digital services company with a telecoms licence’. We upgrade our adjusted EPS estimates by 7.5% for FY25 and 10.4% for FY26. With no change to our core DCF assumptions, our new fair value is US$60.4/share, from US$56.5. Our estimates are below guidance, suggesting potential for further upside if VEON executes to plan. Potential catalysts include stabilisation in Bangladesh, the planned IPO of VEON’s Kyivstar business in H225 and the US$35m buyback announced at the FY24 results.

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a 44% beat at the EPS level. VEON continues to aggressively expand its digital solutions businesses, which grew 63% in 2024 as it executes its strategy to become ‘a digital services company with a telecoms licence’. We upgrade our adjusted EPS estimates by 7.5% for FY25 and 10.4% for FY26. With no change to our core DCF assumptions, our new fair value is US$60.4/share, from US$56.5. Our estimates are below guidance, suggesting potential for further upside if VEON executes to plan. Potential catalysts include stabilisation in Bangladesh, the planned IPO of VEON’s Kyivstar business in H225 and the US$35m buyback announced at the FY24 results.

VEON — 2025 – the year of the catalyst

VEON is a frontier market telecommunications operator offering traditional mobile and internet, and innovative digital services such as online payments, music and TV streaming, and IT services. It has an active shareholder base, a vibrant and incentivised management team and exposure to markets that have growth and profit potential. It is the number one telecoms brand in Ukraine, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, number two in Uzbekistan and number three in Bangladesh. Following the sale of its Russian assets, VEON is committed to a digital services-driven ‘asset-light’ strategy, growth in cash generation and cash returns to shareholders. Catalysts for 2025 include the Nasdaq IPO of its Ukrainian business, the sale of legacy infrastructure assets and any potential resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

VEON is a frontier market telecommunications operator offering traditional mobile and internet, and innovative digital services such as online payments, music and TV streaming, and IT services. It has an active shareholder base, a vibrant and incentivised management team and exposure to markets that have growth and profit potential. It is the number one telecoms brand in Ukraine, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, number two in Uzbekistan and number three in Bangladesh. Following the sale of its Russian assets, VEON is committed to a digital services-driven ‘asset-light’ strategy, growth in cash generation and cash returns to shareholders. Catalysts for 2025 include the Nasdaq IPO of its Ukrainian business, the sale of legacy infrastructure assets and any potential resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

VEON — An innovative approach to frontier telecoms

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14026" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14026:1">VEON (VEON US)</a> announced a group restructuring that involved selling its 50% holding in Wind Tre (Wind) in Italy to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/132" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> (Hutch) and taking 100% control of subsidiaries in Pakistan and Bangladesh from its affiliate (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25491:1">Global Telecom Holding (GTHE EY)</a>). From the VEON point of view we like the transaction - they are receiving a good valuation for the Italian assets (6.7x EBITDA) and paying a low valuation for the EM assets in Pakistan and Bangladesh. VEON has abandoned its EM…

VEON (VEON US) announced a group restructuring that involved selling its 50% holding in Wind Tre (Wind) in Italy to CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) (Hutch) and taking 100% control of subsidiaries in Pakistan and Bangladesh from its affiliate (Global Telecom Holding (GTHE EY)). From the VEON point of view we like the transaction - they are receiving a good valuation for the Italian assets (6.7x EBITDA) and paying a low valuation for the EM assets in Pakistan and Bangladesh. VEON has abandoned its EM…

CK Hutchison Doubling Down in Italy as VEON Exits at a Good Valuation

Netherlands

VEON Ltd. provides telecommunications and digital services. The Company offers fixed-line telecommunication, broadband, voice, wireless Internet and connectivity, and other related services. VEON serves customers worldwide.

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VEON (VEON US)

VEON — 2025 – the year of the catalyst

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a...

Edison Investment Research

VEON — 2025 – the year of the catalyst

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a...

Edison Investment Research

VEON — An innovative approach to frontier telecoms

VEON is a frontier market telecommunications operator offering traditional mobile and internet, and innovative digital services such as online...

Edison Investment Research

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

CK Hutchison Doubling Down in Italy as VEON Exits at a Good Valuation

VEON (VEON US) announced a group restructuring that involved selling its 50% holding in Wind Tre (Wind) in Italy to CK Hutchison Holdings (1...

New Street Research

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