Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Telecom leader in key frontier markets. VEON serves nearly 160 million subscribers across frontier markets including Ukraine, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Bangladesh.</li>
<li>
 Multiple potential unicorn tech businesses within the Group. VEON has multiple rapidly growing tech businesses with unicorn (US$1bn valuation) potential.</li>
<li>
 Ukraine spin-out to unlock value. VEON is planning a Nasdaq IPO spin-out of its Ukraine business Kyivstar via de-SPAC for 2H25E. We rate VEON as a Structural Long, US$59 Target.</li>
</ul>



 Telecom leader in key frontier markets. VEON serves nearly 160 million subscribers across frontier markets including Ukraine, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Bangladesh.

 Multiple potential unicorn tech businesses within the Group. VEON has multiple rapidly growing tech businesses with unicorn (US$1bn valuation) potential.

 Ukraine spin-out to unlock value. VEON is planning a Nasdaq IPO spin-out of its Ukraine business Kyivstar via de-SPAC for 2H25E. We rate VEON as a Structural Long, US$59 Target.


VEON (VEON US): Frontier Markets Digital Leader, Ukraine Spin-Out to Unlock Value

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a 44% beat at the EPS level. VEON continues to aggressively expand its digital solutions businesses, which grew 63% in 2024 as it executes its strategy to become ‘a digital services company with a telecoms licence’. We upgrade our adjusted EPS estimates by 7.5% for FY25 and 10.4% for FY26. With no change to our core DCF assumptions, our new fair value is US$60.4/share, from US$56.5. Our estimates are below guidance, suggesting potential for further upside if VEON executes to plan. Potential catalysts include stabilisation in Bangladesh, the planned IPO of VEON’s Kyivstar business in H225 and the US$35m buyback announced at the FY24 results.

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a 44% beat at the EPS level. VEON continues to aggressively expand its digital solutions businesses, which grew 63% in 2024 as it executes its strategy to become ‘a digital services company with a telecoms licence’. We upgrade our adjusted EPS estimates by 7.5% for FY25 and 10.4% for FY26. With no change to our core DCF assumptions, our new fair value is US$60.4/share, from US$56.5. Our estimates are below guidance, suggesting potential for further upside if VEON executes to plan. Potential catalysts include stabilisation in Bangladesh, the planned IPO of VEON’s Kyivstar business in H225 and the US$35m buyback announced at the FY24 results.

VEON — 2025 – the year of the catalyst

VEON is a frontier market telecommunications operator offering traditional mobile and internet, and innovative digital services such as online payments, music and TV streaming, and IT services. It has an active shareholder base, a vibrant and incentivised management team and exposure to markets that have growth and profit potential. It is the number one telecoms brand in Ukraine, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, number two in Uzbekistan and number three in Bangladesh. Following the sale of its Russian assets, VEON is committed to a digital services-driven ‘asset-light’ strategy, growth in cash generation and cash returns to shareholders. Catalysts for 2025 include the Nasdaq IPO of its Ukrainian business, the sale of legacy infrastructure assets and any potential resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

VEON is a frontier market telecommunications operator offering traditional mobile and internet, and innovative digital services such as online payments, music and TV streaming, and IT services. It has an active shareholder base, a vibrant and incentivised management team and exposure to markets that have growth and profit potential. It is the number one telecoms brand in Ukraine, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, number two in Uzbekistan and number three in Bangladesh. Following the sale of its Russian assets, VEON is committed to a digital services-driven ‘asset-light’ strategy, growth in cash generation and cash returns to shareholders. Catalysts for 2025 include the Nasdaq IPO of its Ukrainian business, the sale of legacy infrastructure assets and any potential resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

VEON — An innovative approach to frontier telecoms

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

Netherlands

VEON Ltd. provides telecommunications and digital services. The Company offers fixed-line telecommunication, broadband, voice, wireless Internet and connectivity, and other related services. VEON serves customers worldwide.

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VEON (VEON US)

VEON (VEON US): Frontier Markets Digital Leader, Ukraine Spin-Out to Unlock Value

Telecom leader in Ukraine, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan with 160m subs. Also incubating high-growth digital platforms with unicorn potential. Nasdaq...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

VEON — 2025 – the year of the catalyst

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a...

Edison Investment Research

VEON — 2025 – the year of the catalyst

VEON’s Q424 results were robust, with revenues marginally ahead, EBITDA 11% ahead of our forecast and a lower-than-expected tax rate resulting in a...

Edison Investment Research

VEON — An innovative approach to frontier telecoms

VEON is a frontier market telecommunications operator offering traditional mobile and internet, and innovative digital services such as online...

Edison Investment Research

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

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