Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Raksul, Inc. provides Internet based services. The Company mainly offers net printing, net transportation, and other services. Raksul provides services in Japan.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. </li>
<li>They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.</li>
<li>The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.</li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. 
They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.
The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.


[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Predictive Discovery Ltd. explores for gold in Burkina Faso in Africa, and uranium in Australia.  The Company operates in the Fada N'Gourma and Manga-Sebba greenstone belts in Burkina Faso; and in Northern Territory, Australia.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.</li>
<li>The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN)</a> merger transaction.</li>
<li>Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. </li>
</ul>



Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from Perseus Mining (PRU AU) at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.
The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the Robex Resources (RBX CN) merger transaction.
Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. 


Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

<ul>
<li>Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal <a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS70521/6d292fee/db4e/4ae0/8c87/a9cfe14bbd50/140120251201512689.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase</a>.</li>
<li>This covers 27.154mm shares - a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.</li>
<li>This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but "fair price" is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
This covers 27.154mm shares - a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but "fair price" is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.


[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes - More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

MARUWN CORPORATION provides heavyweight cargo transportation services.  The Company's clients include Japan Energy Corporation and Kobe Steel.  Maruwn also operates international cargo transportation.  The Company has product distribution centers in the Kanto, Chubu, and Kansai metropolitan areas.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruwn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18411:1" rel="noopener">Maruwn Corp (9067 JP)</a> has recommended a preconditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/senko-group-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5287:1" rel="noopener">SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP)</a> at JPY949, a 34.6% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, represents an all-time high and implies a P/B of 1.08x.</li>
<li>The key pushback is that Senko has not set the lower limit to achieve two-thirds voting rights. However, tendering by the second-largest shareholder will meet the lower limit. </li>
</ul>



Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) at JPY949, a 34.6% premium to the last close price.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range, represents an all-time high and implies a P/B of 1.08x.
The key pushback is that Senko has not set the lower limit to achieve two-thirds voting rights. However, tendering by the second-largest shareholder will meet the lower limit. 


Maruwn (9067 JP): Senko Group (9069 JP)’s Preconditional Tender Offer

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Neptune Insurance Holdings / Index Rebalance

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides residential and commercial flood insurance products that covers damage from heavy rainfall, melting snow, storm surges, and blocked storm drains. Neptune Insurance Holdings serves customer in the United States.

<ul>
<li>Partial inclusion in US indices is expected in December 2025, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Inclusion in Global index is expected in February 2026, as the security meets eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Exclusion from major US and Global index is expected due to insufficient public voting rights and float cap.</li>
</ul>


Partial inclusion in US indices is expected in December 2025, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global index is expected in February 2026, as the security meets eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.
Exclusion from major US and Global index is expected due to insufficient public voting rights and float cap.


Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP US): Exclusion from US Index Over Voting Rights

Rights Issues
Corporate rights issuance analysis

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

The Perseus offer is attractive. Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes - More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

Tsuruha announced 5+% of shares asked for appraisal rights. That means a 5+% buyback at price TBD. It might be at the Tender Price. Technicals are...

Travis Lundy

Maruwn (9067 JP): Senko Group (9069 JP)’s Preconditional Tender Offer

The offer is attractive. The key pushback is that Senko has not set the lower limit to achieve two-thirds voting rights. However, tendering by the...

Arun George

Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP US): Exclusion from US Index Over Voting Rights

Neptune is expected to be included in US indices in Dec 2025 and Global index in Feb 2026, but faces exclusion from major US and Global index due...

Dimitris Ioannidis

[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

Founder+CEO launch MBO with GS where GS gets 90% of the economics, 50% of the voting rights. This is 11x NTM EBITDA for mid-20s EBIT growth, near...

Travis Lundy

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

The Perseus offer is attractive. Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes - More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

Tsuruha announced 5+% of shares asked for appraisal rights. That means a 5+% buyback at price TBD. It might be at the Tender Price. Technicals are...

Travis Lundy

Maruwn (9067 JP): Senko Group (9069 JP)’s Preconditional Tender Offer

The offer is attractive. The key pushback is that Senko has not set the lower limit to achieve two-thirds voting rights. However, tendering by the...

Arun George

Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP US): Exclusion from US Index Over Voting Rights

​Neptune is expected to be included in US indices in Dec 2025 and Global index in Feb 2026, but faces exclusion from major US and Global index due...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Neptune is expected to be included in US indices in Dec 2025 and Global index in Feb 2026, but faces exclusion from major US and Global index due...