Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

The Eventual Shift in Fed Policy: When & By How Much?

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With an unchanged meeting outcome priced-in, the focus was exclusively on the accompanying statement and presser </li>
<li>The post-meeting statement and Powell's presser, while conditional, left the option to hike on the table  </li>
<li>The latest market expectations and my rule-based estimates offer clues on the likely path of Fed policy </li>
</ul>


With an unchanged meeting outcome priced-in, the focus was exclusively on the accompanying statement and presser 
The post-meeting statement and Powell's presser, while conditional, left the option to hike on the table  
The latest market expectations and my rule-based estimates offer clues on the likely path of Fed policy 


Fed Snap (November 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways