Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

US Banks - Added $122bn Cash In Past 2 Weeks | Loans up $31bn | CRE Loans Down | Deposits up $113bn

US Large Banks - New B/S Data: CRE Craters, MBS Sharp Decline, LLR & Big Fixed Deposits Up+, SE Flat

Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

Fed Watch: 7 Charts on How Assets Perform when the Fed Pauses

Fed raises rates but refuses to guide on next move

Powell Is Done, but Whether the Fed Is Too Depends on the Data

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed policy debate, while ongoing, has become increasingly intricate</li>
<li>But an extended history of almost 100 years offers clues on the future rate path</li>
<li>Ballparking the likely timing and extent of the eventual rate cut cycle  </li>
</ul>


The Fed policy debate, while ongoing, has become increasingly intricate
But an extended history of almost 100 years offers clues on the future rate path
Ballparking the likely timing and extent of the eventual rate cut cycle  


The Eventual Shift in Fed Policy: When & By How Much?