Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Current market conditions are characterized by a strong S&amp;P 500 that’s near its all-time high and weak breadth. </li>
<li>The closest template to these circumstances is August 1972, which is just before the final Nifty Fifty top.</li>
<li>As the market undergoes its inevitable bounce due to oversold conditions, investors should monitor technical conditions for negative divergences, which could be the signal for a long-term cyclical top.</li>
</ul>


Current market conditions are characterized by a strong S&amp;P 500 that’s near its all-time high and weak breadth. 
The closest template to these circumstances is August 1972, which is just before the final Nifty Fifty top.
As the market undergoes its inevitable bounce due to oversold conditions, investors should monitor technical conditions for negative divergences, which could be the signal for a long-term cyclical top.


<ul>
<li>We are subscribers to Occam’s Razor, or the simplest explanation is the most satisfactory, and recent UFOs sightings are of terrestrial origin.</li>
<li>It’s nevertheless a worthwhile exercise to consider asset return expectations under the scenario of an extra-terrestrial alien invasion.</li>
<li>Our study of an alien invasion opens the door to discussing return studies. Standard assumptions about returns to bonds and equity risk premiums are useful only up to a point.</li>
</ul>


We are subscribers to Occam’s Razor, or the simplest explanation is the most satisfactory, and recent UFOs sightings are of terrestrial origin.
It’s nevertheless a worthwhile exercise to consider asset return expectations under the scenario of an extra-terrestrial alien invasion.
Our study of an alien invasion opens the door to discussing return studies. Standard assumptions about returns to bonds and equity risk premiums are useful only up to a point.


Equity Return Expectations Under An Alien Invasion

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Swiss and Canadian central banks cut their respective policy rates by 50 basis points. The former faces currency appreciation and deflationary risks. Canada faces higher unemployment and deteriorating growth.</li>
<li>The European Central Bank is taking a gradual policy easing path in 2025. Policy outlooks for the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are more data dependent.</li>
<li>The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected, but fewer reductions are now expected in 2025 due to a more robust economic outlook compared to September.</li>
</ul>


The Swiss and Canadian central banks cut their respective policy rates by 50 basis points. The former faces currency appreciation and deflationary risks. Canada faces higher unemployment and deteriorating growth.
The European Central Bank is taking a gradual policy easing path in 2025. Policy outlooks for the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are more data dependent.
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected, but fewer reductions are now expected in 2025 due to a more robust economic outlook compared to September.


Global Monetary Easing Cycle Becomes More Idiosyncratic

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

<ul>
<li>Regardless of the circumstances, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  </li>
<li>A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.</li>
<li>For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  </li>
</ul>


Regardless of the circumstances, Intel Corp (INTC US) must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  
A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.
For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global oil demand growth is slowing, with projections to reach 103.8 mb/d in 2025. OPEC+ is delaying production increases amid weaker demand &amp; rising competition from non-OPEC producers like U.S.</li>
<li>Geopolitical instability, a renewable energy shift, and challenges like China's slowdown and high global interest rates are reshaping oil market dynamics, affecting prices and economic strategies.</li>
<li>OPEC's influence is waning as non-OPEC players expand and renewable energy adoption grows. The oil market's evolution highlights the urgent need for diversification in energy strategies.</li>
</ul>


Global oil demand growth is slowing, with projections to reach 103.8 mb/d in 2025. OPEC+ is delaying production increases amid weaker demand &amp; rising competition from non-OPEC producers like U.S.
Geopolitical instability, a renewable energy shift, and challenges like China's slowdown and high global interest rates are reshaping oil market dynamics, affecting prices and economic strategies.
OPEC's influence is waning as non-OPEC players expand and renewable energy adoption grows. The oil market's evolution highlights the urgent need for diversification in energy strategies.


Global Oil Market 2025: US, OPEC+ and Much More..

United States
Insights on the United States (USA)

The Darker Side of the Hindenburg Omen

As the market undergoes its inevitable bounce due to oversold conditions, investors should monitor technical conditions for negative divergences,...

Cam Hui

Equity Return Expectations Under An Alien Invasion

Our study of an alien invasion opens the door to discussing return studies. Standard assumptions about returns to bonds and equity risk premiums...

Cam Hui

Global Monetary Easing Cycle Becomes More Idiosyncratic

The global monetary easing cycle has become more idiosyncratic, as central banks face differing risks, ranging from deflation to potential...

DeSaque Macro Research

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...

Patrick Liao

Global Oil Market 2025: US, OPEC+ and Much More..

Global oil demand growth is slowing, reshaping market dynamics as OPEC's influence wanes and renewable energy adoption grows, highlighting the...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Darker Side of the Hindenburg Omen

As the market undergoes its inevitable bounce due to oversold conditions, investors should monitor technical conditions for negative divergences,...

Cam Hui

Equity Return Expectations Under An Alien Invasion

Our study of an alien invasion opens the door to discussing return studies. Standard assumptions about returns to bonds and equity risk premiums...

Cam Hui

Global Monetary Easing Cycle Becomes More Idiosyncratic

The global monetary easing cycle has become more idiosyncratic, as central banks face differing risks, ranging from deflation to potential...

DeSaque Macro Research

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

​Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...

Patrick Liao

Global Oil Market 2025: US, OPEC+ and Much More..

​Global oil demand growth is slowing, reshaping market dynamics as OPEC's influence wanes and renewable energy adoption grows, highlighting the...

Nimish Maheshwari

Intel Corp faces challenges and must choose a new CEO, potentially signaling a breakup with a spinoff of Altera, amidst financial struggles and...

Global oil demand growth is slowing, reshaping market dynamics as OPEC's influence wanes and renewable energy adoption grows, highlighting the...