Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Charting Beyond the Equity Market Headlines

Charting Beyond the Sanguine Stock Market

Fed Snap (Jan 31 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

A Unique High-Frequency Indicator of Recessions

Monitoring Global Central Bank Actions for Potential Clues

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Arguably, the current normalization of inflation, including the future path of Fed policy, is linked to the unsettled labor market dynamics</li>
<li>The Beveridge curve, depicting an inverse relationship between vacancies and unemployment, offers clues on the ongoing labor market rebalancing   </li>
<li>While my exercise suggests that the unemployment rate is likely to drift up as vacancies decline, the extent of the rise remains uncertain    </li>
</ul>


Arguably, the current normalization of inflation, including the future path of Fed policy, is linked to the unsettled labor market dynamics
The Beveridge curve, depicting an inverse relationship between vacancies and unemployment, offers clues on the ongoing labor market rebalancing   
While my exercise suggests that the unemployment rate is likely to drift up as vacancies decline, the extent of the rise remains uncertain    


Is the Unemployment Rate Drifting Higher or Lower?