Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

The Usual & Unusual Details in the Latest CPI Release

Charting Beyond the Sanguine Stock Market

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Chair Powell's posture on the timing of the initial rate cut, reinforcing the tone of the FOMC statement, sparked an outsized market reaction</li>
<li>The post-meeting statement suggests that the FOMC is incrementally settling on a neutral bias, tiptoeing prospectively toward easing</li>
<li>The current market pricing for a March pivot is less than a coin-flip, but the prospect of easing in May, though fluid, seems to have nudged up </li>
</ul>


Chair Powell's posture on the timing of the initial rate cut, reinforcing the tone of the FOMC statement, sparked an outsized market reaction
The post-meeting statement suggests that the FOMC is incrementally settling on a neutral bias, tiptoeing prospectively toward easing
The current market pricing for a March pivot is less than a coin-flip, but the prospect of easing in May, though fluid, seems to have nudged up 


Fed Snap (Jan 31 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways