Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries.</li><li>The early consensus in Germany is all over the place with entries on the HICP nationwide MoM in Germany ranging from -0.4% from Credit Agricole to 0.2% from Hamburg Commercial bank.</li><li>Our now-cast is currently at -0.54% for Germany but we will continue to watch the price developments carefully daily.</li></ul>

The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries.The early consensus in Germany is all over the place with entries on the HICP nationwide MoM in Germany ranging from -0.4% from Credit Agricole to 0.2% from Hamburg Commercial bank.Our now-cast is currently at -0.54% for Germany but we will continue to watch the price developments carefully daily.

EUR-flation Nugget: A brief nowcast update..

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.</li>
<li>However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.</li>
<li>The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.
However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.
The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.


Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).</li><li>There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.</li><li>Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension

<ul><li>Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?</li><li>Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.</li><li>This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.</li></ul>

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.</li><li>US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in Europe</li><li>It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in EuropeIt’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

EUR-flation Nugget: A brief nowcast update..

The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries. The early consensus in...

Steno Research

Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

The quick answer is that the Magnificent 7 are not a significant threat to the risk-return characteristics of your portfolio. However, the case for...

Jeroen Blokland

US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension

Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put

Takeaways:– Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds. – US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished...

Steno Research

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