Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.9% over a year ago, showing signs of stickiness since last year.</li>
<li>The yield curve has steepened and two-year yields have fallen dramatically, indicating market response to the softer implications for core PCE.</li>
<li>Differences in calculation methods and components of CPI and PCE contribute to the wedge between the two measures, with shelter inflation and medical insurance costs being key factors. Non-market prices, particularly in services, are running below market prices for core PCE.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.9% over a year ago, showing signs of stickiness since last year.
The yield curve has steepened and two-year yields have fallen dramatically, indicating market response to the softer implications for core PCE.
Differences in calculation methods and components of CPI and PCE contribute to the wedge between the two measures, with shelter inflation and medical insurance costs being key factors. Non-market prices, particularly in services, are running below market prices for core PCE.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.</li>
<li>I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.</li>
<li>The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.
I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.
The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.


Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After a ten-year struggle, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, closing one of the most entertaining and remarkable (what regulator gets hacked in the process) ETF races ever.</li>
<li>US inflation came in hotter than expected, but unlike previous months, underlying data was pretty benign, with one measure of headline CPI dropping below 2% for the first time in 3.5 years.</li>
<li>Chinese equities are out. And not just by sentiment-driven short-term investors. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks are on fire, powering ahead by more than 6% since the start of this year.</li>
</ul>


After a ten-year struggle, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, closing one of the most entertaining and remarkable (what regulator gets hacked in the process) ETF races ever.
US inflation came in hotter than expected, but unlike previous months, underlying data was pretty benign, with one measure of headline CPI dropping below 2% for the first time in 3.5 years.
Chinese equities are out. And not just by sentiment-driven short-term investors. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks are on fire, powering ahead by more than 6% since the start of this year.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Chinese Equities Out, Bitcoin In!

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul>
<li>Throughout 2023, the global developed economy was at the forefront of tackling rising inflation that has been gathering steam since mid-2022.</li>
<li>The majority of developed G20 countries saw their central banks raise policy rates at record pace to tame rampant price increases.</li>
<li>Rapid tightening and the potential of an upcoming pivot has resultantly upended stability in growth prospects for the upcoming year.</li>
</ul>


Throughout 2023, the global developed economy was at the forefront of tackling rising inflation that has been gathering steam since mid-2022.
The majority of developed G20 countries saw their central banks raise policy rates at record pace to tame rampant price increases.
Rapid tightening and the potential of an upcoming pivot has resultantly upended stability in growth prospects for the upcoming year.


Central Banks’ Policy Pivot Impact on Developed Markets

<ul>
<li>The divergence among (bond) investors is rapidly increasing. One group expects yields to rise further, while the other expects yields to go down and remain low. I'm in the latter.</li>
<li>To maintain debt sustainability, real yields must remain below real GDP growth. But with declining potential GDP growth, this is not the case currently, and this includes the US.</li>
<li>In the Eurozone, the real yield - real GDP picture is distorted because the ECB must aim monetary policy at the weakest link, Italy. </li>
</ul>


The divergence among (bond) investors is rapidly increasing. One group expects yields to rise further, while the other expects yields to go down and remain low. I'm in the latter.
To maintain debt sustainability, real yields must remain below real GDP growth. But with declining potential GDP growth, this is not the case currently, and this includes the US.
In the Eurozone, the real yield - real GDP picture is distorted because the ECB must aim monetary policy at the weakest link, Italy. 


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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) both experienced increases in core inflation, with CPI being higher due...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen. I guess it is somewhat telling for my...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Chinese Equities Out, Bitcoin In!

With hindsight, this week likely marks Bitcoin's 'official' adoption as a new asset class. Meanwhile, investors seem done with China, once the...

Jeroen Blokland

Central Banks’ Policy Pivot Impact on Developed Markets

Throughout 2023, the global developed economy was at the forefront of tackling rising inflation that has been gathering steam since mid-2022. The...

Criat

Simple Math – Why Rates Must Fall!

A simple rule of thumb shows that real rates can only go down from here and why Italy will continue to rely on the ECB to maintain debt...

Jeroen Blokland

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