Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2.</li><li>The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1.</li><li>While this is a substantial amount, it’s $55 billion less than the October estimate for Q1 ($816 billion).</li></ul>

Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2.The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1.While this is a substantial amount, it’s $55 billion less than the October estimate for Q1 ($816 billion).

US Liquidity & Debt Watch: Yellen to Decide the QT Tapering Timing Tomorrow

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

<ul><li>Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.</li><li>Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.</li><li>The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.

Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The combination of policy decisions in the US rates markets has led to a significant decline in tenure yields.</li><li>There appears to be policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, with the treasury displaying flexibility and the Fed focusing on tightening in financial conditions.</li><li>The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide forward guidance on policy tightening, with expectations of a move towards a neutral bias and steps towards eventual easing or cutting. Inflation language in the statement may also be up for debate.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The combination of policy decisions in the US rates markets has led to a significant decline in tenure yields.There appears to be policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, with the treasury displaying flexibility and the Fed focusing on tightening in financial conditions.The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide forward guidance on policy tightening, with expectations of a move towards a neutral bias and steps towards eventual easing or cutting. Inflation language in the statement may also be up for debate.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: The Calm Before The (Policy) Storm

<ul><li>The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut.</li><li>This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment of the disinflationary pressures, which have proven to be stronger than initially anticipated by the ECB.</li><li>Lagarde even acknowledged progress on disinflation compared to the December baseline just over the past few weeks.</li></ul>

The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut.This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment of the disinflationary pressures, which have proven to be stronger than initially anticipated by the ECB.Lagarde even acknowledged progress on disinflation compared to the December baseline just over the past few weeks.

ECB Watch: The ECB is likely wrong on all major parameters

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

US Liquidity & Debt Watch: Yellen to Decide the QT Tapering Timing Tomorrow

Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2. The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1. While this is...

Steno Research

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red...

Steno Research

US Rates: The Calm Before The (Policy) Storm

The US rates market has experienced a slowdown in coupon auction increases and ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes, while the Federal...

At Any Rate

ECB Watch: The ECB is likely wrong on all major parameters

The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut. This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment...

Steno Research

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