Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.</li>
<li>1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).</li>
</ul>


More restrictive Fed policy than expected is disproportionately hitting small/mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps.
Large-Caps (SPX, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish on continued strength from mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA,MSFT). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.
1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields testing resistance today and failing. U.S. dollar (DXY) also testing key resistance at $104.60. We also push back on the bad breadth argument (again).


Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.</li><li>The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.</li><li>The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.</li></ul>

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries again</li><li>The ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have sufficient evidence of 2% inflation</li><li>The Fed is likely to postpone the first cut until May, but the risk of a March cut will be traded up through February on seasonality issues</li></ul>

Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries againThe ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have sufficient evidence of 2% inflationThe Fed is likely to postpone the first cut until May, but the risk of a March cut will be traded up through February on seasonality issues

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Beyond the official communiqué, Chairman Powell reiterated his dovish stance in his press conference, underscoring the Fed’s intense commitment to achieving a ‘soft landing.</li>
<li>Despite robust GDP growth, the ISM Manufacturing Index already calls for lower interest rates,</li>
<li>With Powell highlighting the current restrictive nature of rates and the likelihood of forthcoming inflation data bolstering the Fed’s confidence, rate cuts could soon be on the horizon. </li>
</ul>


Beyond the official communiqué, Chairman Powell reiterated his dovish stance in his press conference, underscoring the Fed’s intense commitment to achieving a ‘soft landing.
Despite robust GDP growth, the ISM Manufacturing Index already calls for lower interest rates,
With Powell highlighting the current restrictive nature of rates and the likelihood of forthcoming inflation data bolstering the Fed’s confidence, rate cuts could soon be on the horizon. 


Key Insight from the Federal Reserve Meeting: Soft Landing Rules!

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Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY); What Would Lead Us to Get Cautious?

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar. 1-, 2-, and 10-year Treasury yields $TNX failing at shorter-term resistances today; $DXY below...

Vermilion Research

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by...

Steno Research

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

G3 Watch: Timing the first rate cut

Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries again. The ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have...

Steno Research

Key Insight from the Federal Reserve Meeting: Soft Landing Rules!

While the official FOMC statement shows the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, Powell's hunger for a soft landing means they are closer than it seems.

Jeroen Blokland

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