Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It seems like no one is willing to add bets on rate cuts in H1 after even the doves from the ECB and the Fed have been hard to convince of spring action lately.</li><li>G3 central bankers have been on parade with messages around the risks of easing prematurely after watching the cocktail of 1) higher freight rates, 2) sticky wages and 3) easing financial conditions, especially in the US.</li><li>We have seen front-end back paddling in rates space ever since New Years accordingly and the almost bizarre uniformity in views and positioning has been blown into pieces in a matter of weeks.</li></ul>

It seems like no one is willing to add bets on rate cuts in H1 after even the doves from the ECB and the Fed have been hard to convince of spring action lately.G3 central bankers have been on parade with messages around the risks of easing prematurely after watching the cocktail of 1) higher freight rates, 2) sticky wages and 3) easing financial conditions, especially in the US.We have seen front-end back paddling in rates space ever since New Years accordingly and the almost bizarre uniformity in views and positioning has been blown into pieces in a matter of weeks.

Steno Signals #88: Anyone left willing to bet on rate cuts in H1?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Podcast by Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Podcast by Bilal Hafeez

Macro Hive

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

Talking Economics and Markets

<ul><li>Claudia Sam is a well-known expert in monetary and fiscal policy, with experience advising decision makers at top government institutions</li><li>She is the founder of Stay at Home Macro consulting and has a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan</li><li>Throughout her career, she has experienced major economic crises, such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading her to focus on the importance of fiscal policy in times of crisis.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Claudia Sam is a well-known expert in monetary and fiscal policy, with experience advising decision makers at top government institutionsShe is the founder of Stay at Home Macro consulting and has a PhD in economics from the University of MichiganThroughout her career, she has experienced major economic crises, such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading her to focus on the importance of fiscal policy in times of crisis.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum.</li>
<li>As always we share our trade thoughts and ideas and provide you with our current allocation.</li>
<li>Yesterday’s PPI came in hot as we expected (0.6% MoM in core PPI vs 0.1% expected), which serves as an early sign of a reacceleration in inflationary pressures, which have been our base case since the continuation of the tensions in the Red Sea: It looks like the increase in US freight rates has started to impact producer prices.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum.
As always we share our trade thoughts and ideas and provide you with our current allocation.
Yesterday’s PPI came in hot as we expected (0.6% MoM in core PPI vs 0.1% expected), which serves as an early sign of a reacceleration in inflationary pressures, which have been our base case since the continuation of the tensions in the Red Sea: It looks like the increase in US freight rates has started to impact producer prices.


Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Steno Signals #88: Anyone left willing to bet on rate cuts in H1?

It seems like no one is willing to add bets on rate cuts in H1 after even the doves from the ECB and the Fed have been hard to convince of spring...

Steno Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession

Claudia Sam, an expert in monetary and fiscal policy, forecasting, and recession indicators, has advised top decision makers and founded Stay at...

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps $IWM $VXF Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 $RSP Breakout; U.S. Dollar $DXY Failed Breakout at $104.70;...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?

Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum. As always we share...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)