Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial!The fake business cycle strikes again.</li><li>In 2022/2023, the market was lured into the recession narrative by a weakening sentiment in various cyclical gauges such as the ISM Manufacturing.</li><li>Classic recession models are designed to try and use the cyclical momentum to assess the health of the broader economy 6-12 months later but the problem is that the cyclical economy is increasingly irrelevant for the economy.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial!The fake business cycle strikes again.In 2022/2023, the market was lured into the recession narrative by a weakening sentiment in various cyclical gauges such as the ISM Manufacturing.Classic recession models are designed to try and use the cyclical momentum to assess the health of the broader economy 6-12 months later but the problem is that the cyclical economy is increasingly irrelevant for the economy.

Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)</li>
<li>Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.


More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul><li>Morning from Europe with low activity across markets due to Easter Friday.</li><li>Our daily coverage returns on Tuesday (including Something for your Espresso dailies).</li><li>The inflation evidence from Europe has been extremely soft this week and it rhymes VERY well with our tactical view of much wider USD-EUR inflation spreads.</li></ul>

Morning from Europe with low activity across markets due to Easter Friday.Our daily coverage returns on Tuesday (including Something for your Espresso dailies).The inflation evidence from Europe has been extremely soft this week and it rhymes VERY well with our tactical view of much wider USD-EUR inflation spreads.

Portfolio Watch: Inflation DIVERGENCE is growing

<ul><li>The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.</li><li>We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.</li><li>Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -&gt; Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26% </li></ul>

The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -&gt; Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26% 

EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

<ul><li>It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found out there.</li><li>I went to London to meet with a bunch of the big funds in town, hot on the heels of Powell’s reflationary Fed meeting on Wednesday.</li><li>It almost annoyed me how “vanilla” my analysis had to be on the back of it, as the Fed is moving the needle lower and lower and lower on the implied Real Fed Funds rate every meeting currently, no matter the underlying developments in inflation and/or growth.</li></ul>

It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found out there.I went to London to meet with a bunch of the big funds in town, hot on the heels of Powell’s reflationary Fed meeting on Wednesday.It almost annoyed me how “vanilla” my analysis had to be on the back of it, as the Fed is moving the needle lower and lower and lower on the implied Real Fed Funds rate every meeting currently, no matter the underlying developments in inflation and/or growth.

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

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Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial!The fake business cycle strikes again. In 2022/2023, the market was lured into the recession...

Steno Research

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy $XLE $RSPG, Utilities $XLU, and Gold Miners $GDX $GDXJ $AEM $RGLD $EGO $SA $IAG; Rally Broadening Out; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch: Inflation DIVERGENCE is growing

Morning from Europe with low activity across markets due to Easter Friday. Our daily coverage returns on Tuesday (including Something for your...

Steno Research

EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found...

Steno Research

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