Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.</li><li>I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.</li><li>The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.</li></ul>

USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

<ul><li>Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the details</li><li>The FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on the data</li><li>Several indicators point to a re-acceleration in underlying price pressures</li></ul>

Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the detailsThe FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on the dataSeveral indicators point to a re-acceleration in underlying price pressures

USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise

<ul><li>As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.</li><li>Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…</li><li>Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.</li></ul>

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.</li><li>It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.</li><li>Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise

Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the details. The FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on...

Steno Research

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research. It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)