Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.</li><li>It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.</li><li>Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Despite the USD declining and OPEC pledging more production cuts, oil has entered a Bear Market. We discuss the disadvantages of being a (price) cartel.</li>
<li>Will the Bank of Japan finally end its extremely loose monetary policy? While investors are betting it will happen as soon as mid-December, the latest inflation data and previous statements of central bank Governor Ueda suggest otherwise.</li>
<li>Next to Federal Reserve hopium, the unanimous embracing of the soft landing, liquidity has boosted equities and other liquidity-driven asset classes like Bitcoin and Gold. </li>
</ul>


Despite the USD declining and OPEC pledging more production cuts, oil has entered a Bear Market. We discuss the disadvantages of being a (price) cartel.
Will the Bank of Japan finally end its extremely loose monetary policy? While investors are betting it will happen as soon as mid-December, the latest inflation data and previous statements of central bank Governor Ueda suggest otherwise.
Next to Federal Reserve hopium, the unanimous embracing of the soft landing, liquidity has boosted equities and other liquidity-driven asset classes like Bitcoin and Gold. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Oil & China Bear Markets, but Liquidity Saves the Day!

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The twin pillars that underpinned US monetary policy since the global financial crisis made policy normalisation difficult. Investors believe quantitative tightening (QT) ceases once the federal funds rate is lowered.</li>
<li>Contrary to the fears encountered during the taper tantrum in 2013, QT has not dramatically tightened US financial conditions since 2017, thereby raising questions about whether any cessation is required.</li>
<li>High levels of bank reserves do not guarantee financial stability, but elevated Treasury borrowing and lower repo market liquidity pose threats that could ultimately force the Fed to end QT.</li>
</ul>


The twin pillars that underpinned US monetary policy since the global financial crisis made policy normalisation difficult. Investors believe quantitative tightening (QT) ceases once the federal funds rate is lowered.
Contrary to the fears encountered during the taper tantrum in 2013, QT has not dramatically tightened US financial conditions since 2017, thereby raising questions about whether any cessation is required.
High levels of bank reserves do not guarantee financial stability, but elevated Treasury borrowing and lower repo market liquidity pose threats that could ultimately force the Fed to end QT.


The Fate of Quantitative Tightening: Not Solely in the Hands of the Fed

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Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research. It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Oil & China Bear Markets, but Liquidity Saves the Day!

Investments highlighted: Oil, Gold, Copper, Commodities, Japanese Yen, Nikkei, Chinese equities, Hang Seng Index, Bitcoin, and US Treasuries.

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

The Fate of Quantitative Tightening: Not Solely in the Hands of the Fed

Investors believe the Fed will cease QT when the federal funds rate is reduced. QT has not produced tight financial conditions. High Treasury...

DeSaque Macro Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)