Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.</li>
<li>Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
</ul>


Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.


Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.</li>
<li>Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.</li>
<li>We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.</li>
</ul>


After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.
Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.
We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

<ul>
<li>2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.</li>
<li>China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.</li>
<li>A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.</li>
</ul>


2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.
China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.
A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.


The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.</li>
<li>The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.</li>
</ul>


China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.
The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

A consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports...

Vermilion Research

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

China wants to further diversify its foreign reserve holdings, which likely means less US Treasuries and more Gold buying.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

China is throwing more liquidity at its real estate sector to save it. Powell is the new top dove while Europe struggles.

Jeroen Blokland

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)