Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.</li><li>President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.</li><li>The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.</li></ul>

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).</li>
<li>Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.</li>
<li>Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).


Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.</li><li>0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.</li><li>As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.</li></ul>

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>While the internet seems totally preoccupied with the San Francisco summit between Xi and Biden, I find other news and analysis much more interesting right now.</li><li>This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.</li><li>I’m now at a point where a Trump win next November looks very likely to me.</li></ul>

While the internet seems totally preoccupied with the San Francisco summit between Xi and Biden, I find other news and analysis much more interesting right now.This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.I’m now at a point where a Trump win next November looks very likely to me.

Great Game – 3 Reasons Why Trump Will Win – And 1 Reason He Won’t

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

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5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was...

Steno Research

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on. 0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but...

Steno Research

Great Game – 3 Reasons Why Trump Will Win – And 1 Reason He Won’t

This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

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