Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).</li><li>Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.</li><li>As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FDI into China turned negative. To explain why, we look at interest rate differentials, profitability, and ‘uninvestability.’ Meanwhile, the country has slipped into deflation again as it buys gold like there is no tomorrow.</li>
<li>US consumer credit is rolling over as the highest yields in decades take their toll. When credit growth stumbles, GDP growth will soon follow. </li>
<li>We look at key takeaways of the latest Fed SLOOS, the surprising decline in oil prices, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and earnings surprises &amp; stock market reactions.</li>
</ul>


FDI into China turned negative. To explain why, we look at interest rate differentials, profitability, and ‘uninvestability.’ Meanwhile, the country has slipped into deflation again as it buys gold like there is no tomorrow.
US consumer credit is rolling over as the highest yields in decades take their toll. When credit growth stumbles, GDP growth will soon follow. 
We look at key takeaways of the latest Fed SLOOS, the surprising decline in oil prices, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and earnings surprises &amp; stock market reactions.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Makes History, Nobody Likes US Debt, and a Massive Chart on Yields

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

<ul>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has hit ‘FRENZY,’ sending a short-term SELL signal! </li>
<li>The Fed is likely done, especially with inflation expectations falling, keeping real yields high. Unfortunately, some macro indicators hint at deflation, which is the ugly side of disinflation.</li>
<li>China, new week, same story. China’s property sector is going absolutely nowhere. In fact, things are worsening with the decline in house prices the steepest nine(!) years.</li>
</ul>


Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has hit ‘FRENZY,’ sending a short-term SELL signal! 
The Fed is likely done, especially with inflation expectations falling, keeping real yields high. Unfortunately, some macro indicators hint at deflation, which is the ugly side of disinflation.
China, new week, same story. China’s property sector is going absolutely nowhere. In fact, things are worsening with the decline in house prices the steepest nine(!) years.


The Weekly Market Monitor – On Deflation, Spot Bitcoin ETFs, Rising Delinquencies, & Faltering China

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.</li><li>While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.</li><li>Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate</li></ul>

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Makes History, Nobody Likes US Debt, and a Massive Chart on Yields

Start your week in financial markets with last week's biggest charts and stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will keep you ahead of markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – On Deflation, Spot Bitcoin ETFs, Rising Delinquencies, & Faltering China

Equity markets are at risk if declining price pressures must be attributed to slowing growth. China's Real Estate is still a mess, while small caps...

Jeroen Blokland

EM by EM #30 Pick-up from King Carry?

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus...

Steno Research

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