Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Main takeaways: The recent bond-relief onset by the QRA needs risk-off sentiment to be sustained. If not we may well see further pain coming into 2024</li><li>CBO’s &amp; OMB’s forecasts are all over the place and based on a soft landing and no additional spending for 2024 (good luck)</li><li>Treasury Borrowing Advisory Council’s funding recommendations that outline the issuance plans are based on the forecasts above and will likely surprise markets substantially unless we see a fiscal consolidation</li></ul>

Main takeaways: The recent bond-relief onset by the QRA needs risk-off sentiment to be sustained. If not we may well see further pain coming into 2024CBO’s &amp; OMB’s forecasts are all over the place and based on a soft landing and no additional spending for 2024 (good luck)Treasury Borrowing Advisory Council’s funding recommendations that outline the issuance plans are based on the forecasts above and will likely surprise markets substantially unless we see a fiscal consolidation

Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point</li>
<li>Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened</li>
<li>Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened
Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.


Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

<ul>
<li>The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.</li>
<li>There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.</li>
<li>So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?</li>
</ul>


The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.
There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.
So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?


Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

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Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs

Main takeaways:The recent bond-relief onset by the QRA needs risk-off sentiment to be sustained. If not we may well see further pain coming into...

Steno Research

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More?; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Breaking Key Supports, several other reasons why we...

Vermilion Research

Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…

The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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