Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.</p></li><li>I think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mks-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5970" rel="noopener">Mks Instruments (MKSI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultra-clean-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19849" rel="noopener">Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichor-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26449" rel="noopener">Ichor Holdings (ICHR US)</a> are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.</li><li>The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.</li></ul>

Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.I think Mks Instruments (MKSI US), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US), and Ichor Holdings (ICHR US) are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 5.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.8%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 7.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.7% of the index) was up 5.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 1.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was up 3.3%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: ALTA, FGPHF, AVL, VGAS, VIHD, LNZA, FHYD, OPTT, GWTI, LIDR</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 5.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.8%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 7.4%).Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.7% of the index) was up 5.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 1.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was up 3.3%.Top 10 Performers: ALTA, FGPHF, AVL, VGAS, VIHD, LNZA, FHYD, OPTT, GWTI, LIDR

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Blue Biofuels (BIOF): Breaks Ground in Florida

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 7.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 9.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 9.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 9.8%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.8% of the index) was down 9.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.0% of the index) was down 8.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.6% of the index) was down 6.4%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: PGTK, GWTI, MVST, NRM, LEV, AZRE, JEV, <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">VIHD, ENG, RUN</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 7.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 9.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 9.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 9.8%).Energy Technology (12.8% of the index) was down 9.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.0% of the index) was down 8.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.6% of the index) was down 6.4%.Top 10 Performers: PGTK, GWTI, MVST, NRM, LEV, AZRE, JEV, VIHD, ENG, RUN

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Why Subsystems Now

I think MKSI, UCTT, and ICHR are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.

Fabricated Knowledge

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Blue Biofuels (BIOF): Breaks Ground in Florida

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.4% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 5.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.8%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 7.4%).

Water Tower Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 7.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 9.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 9.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research