Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.9% over a year ago, showing signs of stickiness since last year.</li>
<li>The yield curve has steepened and two-year yields have fallen dramatically, indicating market response to the softer implications for core PCE.</li>
<li>Differences in calculation methods and components of CPI and PCE contribute to the wedge between the two measures, with shelter inflation and medical insurance costs being key factors. Non-market prices, particularly in services, are running below market prices for core PCE.</li>
</ul>
This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.9% over a year ago, showing signs of stickiness since last year.
The yield curve has steepened and two-year yields have fallen dramatically, indicating market response to the softer implications for core PCE.
Differences in calculation methods and components of CPI and PCE contribute to the wedge between the two measures, with shelter inflation and medical insurance costs being key factors. Non-market prices, particularly in services, are running below market prices for core PCE.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.</li>
<li>I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.</li>
<li>The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.
I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.
The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.


Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.</li><li>Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.</li><li>The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.</li></ul>

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.

Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.</li><li>The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.</li><li>H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.</li></ul>

Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.

CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is a little softer overall on the session so far but there is little to suggest FX markets are doing anything different from the trading patterns seen so far this week—idling ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data.</li><li>The ZAR and AUD lead intraday gains on the USD, closely followed by the NOK—suggesting a pro-risk bias in markets.</li><li>But European stocks are only marginally higher on the session while US futures are narrowly mixed. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is a little softer overall on the session so far but there is little to suggest FX markets are doing anything different from the trading patterns seen so far this week—idling ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data.The ZAR and AUD lead intraday gains on the USD, closely followed by the NOK—suggesting a pro-risk bias in markets.But European stocks are only marginally higher on the session while US futures are narrowly mixed. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) both experienced increases in core inflation, with CPI being higher due...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen. I guess it is somewhat telling for my...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us. Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations,...

Steno Research

CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?

Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Idles Ahead of CPI

he USD is a little softer overall on the session so far but there is little to suggest FX markets are doing anything different from the trading...

Scotiabank

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52-week Range

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