Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.</li><li>The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.</li><li>H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.</li></ul>

Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.

CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?