Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more during the next weeks.</li><li>Good news for gas markets in Europe.</li><li>We start this week by honing in on reports from the Houthis that they intend to close all three waterways in the Middle East.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more during the next weeks.Good news for gas markets in Europe.We start this week by honing in on reports from the Houthis that they intend to close all three waterways in the Middle East.

Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.</li><li>The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.</li><li>The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?</li><li>Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.</li><li>This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.</li></ul>

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.</li><li>US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in Europe</li><li>It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in EuropeIt’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Granted, methodology does not have a very sexy ring to it, but a return-making edge may be hidden in the details.</li><li>In this untraditional edition of the ‘US Inflation Watch’ we take a closer look at the dis- and similarities between Powell &amp; Co.’s go-to PCE and the more popularly known CPI.</li><li>Our models do in fact point to a likely surprise to next week’s PCE.</li></ul>

Granted, methodology does not have a very sexy ring to it, but a return-making edge may be hidden in the details.In this untraditional edition of the ‘US Inflation Watch’ we take a closer look at the dis- and similarities between Powell &amp; Co.’s go-to PCE and the more popularly known CPI.Our models do in fact point to a likely surprise to next week’s PCE.

US Inflation Watch: Methodology Matters – Upside surprise in PCE according to CPI?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING

Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more...

Steno Research

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put

Takeaways:– Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds. – US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished...

Steno Research

US Inflation Watch: Methodology Matters – Upside surprise in PCE according to CPI?

Granted, methodology does not have a very sexy ring to it, but a return-making edge may be hidden in the details. In this untraditional edition of...

Steno Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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