Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.</li><li>Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.</li><li>After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.</li></ul>

Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading a little firmer to start the week but the DXY remains effectively range bound, with the broader trend in the USD against the majors still holding within the wide intraday range set by the markets in response to the stronger than expected NFP data on January 5th.</li><li>The MLK Day federal holiday today will keep things relatively quiet, and ranges are unlikely to extend significantly in the absence of US market participants.</li><li>But the somewhat firmer USD tone is appropriate in my opinion, given the recent strength in US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials who have suggested market pricing for a March rate cut (19bps at writing) is optimistic. Stocks are trading with a slightly softer bias on the session—but fixed income is a little weaker as well in Europe—giving the USD a mild helping hand on the session. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading a little firmer to start the week but the DXY remains effectively range bound, with the broader trend in the USD against the majors still holding within the wide intraday range set by the markets in response to the stronger than expected NFP data on January 5th.The MLK Day federal holiday today will keep things relatively quiet, and ranges are unlikely to extend significantly in the absence of US market participants.But the somewhat firmer USD tone is appropriate in my opinion, given the recent strength in US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials who have suggested market pricing for a March rate cut (19bps at writing) is optimistic. Stocks are trading with a slightly softer bias on the session—but fixed income is a little weaker as well in Europe—giving the USD a mild helping hand on the session. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.</li><li>They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.</li><li>The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.</li></ul>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump is likely to win a substantial victory in the Iowa caucuses, with the real contest being for second place between Haley and DeSantis, with the latter banking on Iowa.</li>
<li>In the New Hampshire primary, Haley has closed the gap with Trump, to near a dead-heat with Christie's withdrawal. A post-Iowa withdrawal by DeSantis would mean "Advantage Haley' in NH. </li>
<li>Haley will likely win at home (South Carolina), with that momentum reducing Trump's huge organizational advantage on Super Tuesday. A 2-horse GOP race is market-positive, promising a less chaotic outcome.  </li>
</ul>


Trump is likely to win a substantial victory in the Iowa caucuses, with the real contest being for second place between Haley and DeSantis, with the latter banking on Iowa.
In the New Hampshire primary, Haley has closed the gap with Trump, to near a dead-heat with Christie's withdrawal. A post-Iowa withdrawal by DeSantis would mean "Advantage Haley' in NH. 
Haley will likely win at home (South Carolina), with that momentum reducing Trump's huge organizational advantage on Super Tuesday. A 2-horse GOP race is market-positive, promising a less chaotic outcome.  


US: Haley Leads Biden by 8pp; Iowa Could Make It a Trump-Haley GOP Contest

United States

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EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout)

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Gains in Quiet Trade

The MLK Day federal holiday today will keep things relatively quiet, and ranges are unlikely to extend significantly in the absence of US market...

Scotiabank

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

In this podcast episode, the hosts introduce themselves, discuss the recurring risk between China and Taiwan, acknowledge their past incorrect...

Odd Lots

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

US: Haley Leads Biden by 8pp; Iowa Could Make It a Trump-Haley GOP Contest

DeSantis bet the bank on Iowa. If Haley beats him to 2nd there, he's likely to withdraw. Haley then will likely beat Trump in NH & SC, reducing...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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