Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everybody, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch!</li><li>The Hamas attack on October 7th coincided with a material repricing and a crash in oil prices, marking the peak in inflation expectations and the subsequent collapse of oil prices as 2023 came to an end.</li><li>Given our contrarian nature, we were far from convinced by this swift market move. We believed it was only a matter of time before reality would set in, and it appears that 2024 has indeed brought a harsh awakening for complacent optimists. </li></ul>

Hello everybody, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch!The Hamas attack on October 7th coincided with a material repricing and a crash in oil prices, marking the peak in inflation expectations and the subsequent collapse of oil prices as 2023 came to an end.Given our contrarian nature, we were far from convinced by this swift market move. We believed it was only a matter of time before reality would set in, and it appears that 2024 has indeed brought a harsh awakening for complacent optimists.  

Portfolio Watch: Chasing ships and fading narratives

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Pak Rupee (PKR) has been under pressure since last 7-Years. In 2023 PKR fell 20% against US$ in spite of some recovery in last few months.</li><li>This 20% fall in 2023 is higher than last 5-Year average fall of 13% a year and 10-Year average of 8%.</li><li>External financing gap, challenging global financial markets, and local political instability has badly affected foreign exchange (FX) reserves and build pressure on PKR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pak Rupee (PKR) has been under pressure since last 7-Years. In 2023 PKR fell 20% against US$ in spite of some recovery in last few months.This 20% fall in 2023 is higher than last 5-Year average fall of 13% a year and 10-Year average of 8%.External financing gap, challenging global financial markets, and local political instability has badly affected foreign exchange (FX) reserves and build pressure on PKR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy - PKR Down 20% Against US$ in 2023; Average Inflation of 31% but Likely to Fall

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Eurozone is exposed to the risk of inflation relapse on continuing geopolitical risks. Potential energy and goods inflation will force the ECB to defer its rate cuts.</li>
<li>Inflation rose 2.9% YoY reversing a 2-year low (2.4%) observed in November. Core inflation, softened to 3.4% marking its lowest point since March 2022.</li>
<li>US headline job numbers look healthy. Details spell trouble. Payroll data was revised lower by 71k for Oct &amp; Nov. Average work week contracted, and participation rate declined.</li>
</ul>


Eurozone is exposed to the risk of inflation relapse on continuing geopolitical risks. Potential energy and goods inflation will force the ECB to defer its rate cuts.
Inflation rose 2.9% YoY reversing a 2-year low (2.4%) observed in November. Core inflation, softened to 3.4% marking its lowest point since March 2022.
US headline job numbers look healthy. Details spell trouble. Payroll data was revised lower by 71k for Oct &amp; Nov. Average work week contracted, and participation rate declined.


Will Relapse of Eurozone Inflation Propel Euro Against the Dollar?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.</li><li>The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.</li><li>Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>New month, new regime, which means a new asset allocation for the month ahead.</li><li>The turn of the calendar once again calls for us to assess our outlook for the 3 main variables of interest: Liquidity, inflation and growth and feed them into our Regime Model and Asset Allocation tool that spits out the Sharpe Ratio optimizing portfolio given the assumptions about the variables of interest.</li><li>Remember that you can feed the model with your own forecasts to see which baskets to put your eggs in.</li></ul>

New month, new regime, which means a new asset allocation for the month ahead.The turn of the calendar once again calls for us to assess our outlook for the 3 main variables of interest: Liquidity, inflation and growth and feed them into our Regime Model and Asset Allocation tool that spits out the Sharpe Ratio optimizing portfolio given the assumptions about the variables of interest.Remember that you can feed the model with your own forecasts to see which baskets to put your eggs in.

Macro Regime Indicator: Liquidity is everything in January

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Portfolio Watch: Chasing ships and fading narratives

Hello everybody, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch!We’re kicking off the year with profits and it’s safe to say that the opening days...

Steno Research

Pakistan Economy - PKR Down 20% Against US$ in 2023; Average Inflation of 31% but Likely to Fall

Pak Rupee (PKR) has been under pressure since last 7-Years. In 2023 PKR fell 20% against US$ in spite of some recovery in last few months. This...

Topline Securities

Will Relapse of Eurozone Inflation Propel Euro Against the Dollar?

Fighting inflation is hard. Central banks are data dependent. Europe is at risk of inflation relapse. New data will compel policy makers to rethink...

Mint Finance

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

he USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.

Scotiabank

Macro Regime Indicator: Liquidity is everything in January

New month, new regime, which means a new asset allocation for the month ahead. The turn of the calendar once again calls for us to assess our...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)