Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello, everyone, and welcome to our weekly Positioning Watch! I’m certain that our dedicated readers have noticed the absence of last weekend’s edition, but fear not, we’re back with a vengeance today! Typically, we release Positioning Watch every Saturday.</li><li>However, we’ve observed that many of our readers actually prefer to peruse it on Mondays so why not add everything that may occur in a weekend?</li><li>Therefore, we’ve decided to shift our release schedule to every Monday.</li></ul>

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our weekly Positioning Watch! I’m certain that our dedicated readers have noticed the absence of last weekend’s edition, but fear not, we’re back with a vengeance today! Typically, we release Positioning Watch every Saturday.However, we’ve observed that many of our readers actually prefer to peruse it on Mondays so why not add everything that may occur in a weekend?Therefore, we’ve decided to shift our release schedule to every Monday.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.</li><li>That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.</li><li>A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.</li></ul>

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Takeaways: Some very gloomy signs in the IFO survey details with Capital Goods production expectations nose-diving in a recessionary fashionOn the other hand, the highly cyclical Chemicals industry, a large consumer of Natural Gas, is rebounding for the third month running.</li><li>Price pressures remain low in the forward looking survey, but there are signs of a stabilization/rebound.</li><li>EUR-flation is likely to bottom below 2%, but price pressures could re-emerge already during the spring according to the Ifo Survey.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Some very gloomy signs in the IFO survey details with Capital Goods production expectations nose-diving in a recessionary fashionOn the other hand, the highly cyclical Chemicals industry, a large consumer of Natural Gas, is rebounding for the third month running.Price pressures remain low in the forward looking survey, but there are signs of a stabilization/rebound.EUR-flation is likely to bottom below 2%, but price pressures could re-emerge already during the spring according to the Ifo Survey.

Ifo Watch: Signs of Disinflation Bottoming Out in Germany?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—After falling sharply at the start of the week, the USD is rebounding strongly and is trading higher against all its major currency peers on the session.</li><li>Weak risk appetite seems to be driving broad USD gains though European stocks and US equity futures are off earlier session lows.</li><li>Soft US tech earnings last night are weighing on sentiment but the bounce in the USD seems to overstate the general mood in markets. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FX Market Update—After falling sharply at the start of the week, the USD is rebounding strongly and is trading higher against all its major currency peers on the session.Weak risk appetite seems to be driving broad USD gains though European stocks and US equity futures are off earlier session lows.Soft US tech earnings last night are weighing on sentiment but the bounce in the USD seems to overstate the general mood in markets. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Gains on Soft Risk Mood, CAD Soft Ahead of BoC

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Positioning Watch: Who Blinks First?

TLT inflows have been consistently positive for several months, indicating a strong trend. However, early investors find themselves in under...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office inBrandenburg released the...

Steno Research

Ifo Watch: Signs of Disinflation Bottoming Out in Germany?

Takeaways: Some very gloomy signs in the IFO survey details with Capital Goods production expectations nose-diving in a recessionary fashion

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Gains on Soft Risk Mood, CAD Soft Ahead of BoC

FX Market Update—After falling sharply at the start of the week, the USD is rebounding strongly and is trading higher against all its major...

Scotiabank

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