bearish
5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024
617 Views28 Dec 2023 15:02
SUMMARY
- The overwhelming consensus for 2024 continues to be a soft landing in the US with interest rates coming firmly down while growth continues on autopilot, which leaves a very decent, almost goldilocksy, outlook for risk assets.
- But what if we don’t end in a soft landing, but rather one of the tail-end scenarios of either 1) a boom driven by easier financial conditions, which would force the Fed to push back a bit on rate cuts or 2) a recession, which would imply rates much lower than what consensus currently is.
- We have chosen 5 “likely unlikely” scenarios for 2024, which are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.
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