Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The smallest German state, Saarland, sneaked out its preliminary December inflation this morning and it was another soft surprise.</li><li>Saarland CPI increased a tad less than 0.1% on the month, which is below 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.</li><li>This is if anything a SOFT print relative to consensus expectations and as Saarland CPI explains 78% of the variability in the nationwide German CPI, it leaves a 0.1% MoM inflation print most likely for the German CPI.</li></ul>

The smallest German state, Saarland, sneaked out its preliminary December inflation this morning and it was another soft surprise.Saarland CPI increased a tad less than 0.1% on the month, which is below 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.This is if anything a SOFT print relative to consensus expectations and as Saarland CPI explains 78% of the variability in the nationwide German CPI, it leaves a 0.1% MoM inflation print most likely for the German CPI.

EUR Inflation Watch – The ECB forecast is OFF by >1.5%-points for Q1